| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) |
$226 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
April 29, 2015 |
Jul 21 – Jul 27 |
Food & Necessities |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 O’Reilly Automotive is having continued success and it shows in the stock price. Last qtr profits shot up 28% — the highest growth in almost two years — on a 10% increase in sales sparked by 7% same-store-sales — the best SSS figure since 2010. ORLY’s share count fell from 140 million to 100 million from 2011-2014 as management bought back stock with excess cash, and it bought another $135m in shares last qtr. Also, ORLY’s beaten the street every quarter since Fall 2011 and even then it still hit estimates. Low gas prices will allow people to travel this Summer (it costs me $20 to fill up my car, really) and that means auto parts will be in demand. ORLY is a timely stock, but it’s slightly overvalued at 26x earnings. If you own it, hold on. If you don’t, wait for a pullback. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 Amazing looking one-year chart, but I can guess the next year with be more back-and-forth as ORLY digests its gains. The P/E of 26 is a lot bigger than the Est. LTG of 16%. So this is a good candidate to take profits in, as I have done in the past, at much lower levels, and later regretted it. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 As mentioned earlier, profits increased 28% on a 10% rise in sales.ORLY beat analyst estimates by 13 cents last qtr, the best beat in more than years (my data goes back to 2012). Annual Profit Estimates continue to climb and make ORLY a timely stock. Quarterly profit estimates show teens profit growth ahead but ORLY has been beating the street for a while now, and the economic conditions make it easy for that to continue. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 I feel this $226 stock is worth $208, so ORLY is a little overvalued a lot of the stocks I follow. Next year’s Fair Value is $237 and increases every quarter because ORLY ups annual estimated every qtr. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 This used to be a perfect ten-year chart but now its starting to look dangerous. If this is a large position you may wish to take profits at this time. I don’t like the current angle, it’s too far too fast. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
19 of 22 |
O’Reilly Automotive is having continued success but the stock is slightly overvalued at this time, so new investors should limit your purchases. For existing stockholders this is an excellent company you can hold for many years, a true core holding for moderate growth portfolios. ORLY is ranked 19th of 22 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. The stock doesn’t have the upside for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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