| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) |
$151 |
|
| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
March 11, 2014 |
Apr 23 |
Food & Necessities |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 O’Reilly Automotive is doing well this extended winter, as snow storms are boosting sales of auto parts. Same store sales rose 5% last quarter, and the stock popped after it reported good results. The bad news is investors have priced this stock to where it should be, thus ORLY has limited upside here. O’Reilly grows mainly through buying other auto parts chains, like VIP Parts, Tires & Service and CSK Auto (in 2008) and it also opens around 200 new stores per year (it has 4000 total). Company management uses excess cash to buy back stock, it bought back $250 million last quarter and authorized an additional $500 million more in future buybacks. |
||
| One-Year Chart | ||
 Quarterly profit growth has been good the last three-quarters, but looks to slow to the teens the next couple of quarters. At 21 times earnings this stock is selling close to its fair value. When profit growth slows this stock will take a breather. |
||
| Earnings Table | ||
 Profits grew 23% last quarter as sales increased 9% overall. ORLY beat estimates by 8 cents, but its going to need to beat by 5 cents next quarter to grow profits 20%. Annual Profit Estimates got a big boost higher — due to the weather. I think this quarter is shaping up to be a bad one weather-wise, good one profit-wise. Estimated quarterly profit looks good, not great. I think ORLY can grow 20%. |
||
| Fair Value | ||
 ORLY is fairly valued on a long-term view but should keep going higher because earnings estimates are increasing due to the bad weather. |
||
| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 I’ve had this stock for a good chunk of this decade, but should have held it the entire time. Nice, dependable 20% grower. |
||
| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
20 of 25 |
O’Reilly Automotive is clicking on all cylinders right now, so it should continue to keep rising, but the stock’s selling where is should right now and doesn’t have much upside to its Fair Value. ORLY is ranked 20th in the 25 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. ORLY is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. |
|
Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
||
