| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Noah Holdings (NOAH) |
$32 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
June 24, 2015 |
N/A |
Financial |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Noah Holdings is the largest player in the wealth management space in China, with 60 cities in almost 100 branches, 800 advisors and 70,000 clients. Noah focuses on high net worth clients who own companies and have a net worth between $15 million and $30 million. It gets 76% of sales from wealth management, 22% from asset management, and 2% from Internet finance. NOAH has surged from $21 to $32 this year, but I continue to fly blind with little analyst estimates. Last qtr analysts estimated the long-term profit growth rate at a robust 34%, now there’s nothing available. Still, for 2015 analysts project 48% sales growth with 20% profit growth. At this juncture I am riding along in the passenger seat — with no qtrly estimates. We have a nice gain in the stock, and I feel NOAH is a good long-tem holding with the ability to grow 30% per year, but I don’t know what the short-term outlook is with such little data to work with. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 The P/E has gone from 14 to 20 since my last report. It’s in red because I feel brokerage firms should have a P/E of 17. But, I think the company can grow 30% a year so I wouldn’t suggest selling shares. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Sales increased 43% last qtr, and profits grew 16%. This is the 2nd straight qtr I have been disappointed profits didn’t grow as fast as sales.There was no estimates last qtr, so I don’t know if Noah met or beat or missed. Annual Profit Estimates increased 11 cents for 2015, and now I have a 2016 estimate of $2.19. For the 2nd straight qtr I don’t have qtrly estimates. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 I feel at the current price NOAH is fairly valued, but it has good upside for 2016 and beyond. I think this could be a great investment if we stick with it 3-to-5 years. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 This ten-year chart makes me think the stock will pull back a bit and base again. I don’t like the whiplash volatility, but I do like the Annual Profits. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
18 of 23 |
Noah Holdings has been a solid investment for us and it has the ability to grow 30% per year in the future. But with no analyst estimates we are just driving along in the passenger seat. The stock is reasonable at 20x earnings. NOAH ranks 18th of 23 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. The recent surge makes me think it could take a breather. I need estimates to consider it for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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