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On the Dark Side of the Moon

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Hoah Holdings (NOAH)

$16

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

March 23, 2014

 N/A

Financial

Sharek’s Take
David SharekNoah Holdings (NOAH) is growing its Chinese brokerage business rapidly, but the stock is being hampered due to little coverage. Last quarter revenue jumped 81%, registered clients rose 33% and active clients increased by 79%. Still, NOAH’s P/E is just 13 as the stock just sits here. Noah Holdings is on the dark side of the moon. The stock has 50% upside to its fair value, but we have to be patient investors.
One-Year Chart
NOAH_2014_Q1This stock went higher when last year the Chinese Internet stocks did. Then it missed by a penny 2QtrsAgo and all the momentum left. Look at NOAH’s Est. Long Term Growth Rate: 25%. For only 13 times earnings. Looks like a good deal to me.
Earnings Table
NOAH_2014_Q1_EPSNoah’s sales increased 81% and profits jumped 86% last quarter.

The company beat estimates by a respectable three cents a share last quarter.
 
Profit growth is expected to slow to 20% this year, but a financial corporation that grows at 20% is good. I think this stock is a deal at 13 times earnings.
 
Nice to see quarterly estimates here. Last qtr I was thinking we might not have any quarterly estimates because there was little analyst coverage. These quarterly numbers look solid.
Fair Value
NOAH_2014_Q1_PHNOAH took it to another level last year when profits more than doubled. The stock got to the mid-$20s, but then it stalled. Now there’s solid upside to its fair value.
Ten-Year Chart
NOAH_2014_Q1_10yrOnly one year of slow profit growth since NOAH came public in 2010. The stock is having trouble picking up institutional coverage.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

15 of 27

Noah Holdings is growing rapidly but since it doesn’t get much attention the stock is selling for around half of what it should. This is a good value, but since it is a small Chinese stock there is a bit of risk.
 
NOAH ranks 15th of 27 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. It’s not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio because it’s not timely.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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