| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Noah Holdings (NOAH) |
$19 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
December 16, 2014 |
Feb 21 – Feb 25 |
Financial |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Chinese wealth manager (brokerage firm) Noah Holdings (NOAH) continues to be under the radar. The stock sells for just 12x earnings even though sales jumped 52% and profits rose 26% last qtr. Normally brokerage firms get P/Es in the high teens, but NOAH just can’t get up that high. A P/E of 17 would get NOAH to $26 — a 41% gain from here. But we have to wait patiently as this stock isn’t reacting as well as it should. NOAH did try to break out back in November — shooting from $19 to $26 — but then it quickly gave up all those gains. Management is spending to hire and train new associates, and that may be holding back profits, but the company is still expected to grow profits 18% in 2015 on a 26% boost in sales. There’s little analyst coverage of this stock, and more eyes following it would certainly help. In the meantime we sit and wait and hope someday our patience will be rewarded. My 2015 Fair Value is $26, which implies 41% upside. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 Would have been nice had NOAH held onto the gains it just made. Notice the P/E of just 12 even as the Est LTG is 34%. That means analysts expecte profits to grow 34% a year for the next 3-to-5 years. Profits are expected to be flat next quarter, as estimates fell due to higher spending. No qtrly estimates after that (little analyst coverage). |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Noah’s sales increased 52% last qtr, profits rose 26%. Two-thirds of client holdings are in bonds.The company missed analyst estimates by a penny, but the stock soared after the company reported so it wasn’t that bad. Annual Profit Estimates got a nice boost higher. I don’t have 2016 estimates, due to lack of coverage. I only have one quarter of upcoming estimates. That’s it. This stock needs more analyst coverage. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 Asking for a P/E of 17 isn’t too much. The long-term growth rate of the company is 34% per year! It’s puzzling why this stock isn’t higher than it is. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 This stock’s tried to make big moves higehr on two occations, and failed both times. I don’t like this chart pattern — but I do like the profits. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
17 of 23 |
Noah Holdings looks to be a very good investment for risk tolerant portfolios. The numbers look good and the stock’s undervalued. I’ll try to be patient with this stock and hope to someday reap the reward. NOAH ranks 17th of 23 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. It is too small and volitile for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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