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You Could Sell on Strength

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

$348

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

August 25, 2011

Oct 18

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekIntuitive Surgical’s prospects turned up last quarter. When doing my ISRG quarterly updates, I usually focus on da Vinci system sales and recurring revenue from replacement parts needed for da Vinci’s. This quarter, I’m pleased to say the company beat by a solid margin and increased estimates, which wasn’t the case in my article three months ago.
 
ISRG is a 30% grower in my eyes, and its selling at 30 times earnings. I think the stock is fairly valued around here. If ISRG pops over $400, investors could take profits, although they would be selling shares in one of the best buy-and-hold stocks of the decade.
One-Year Chart
ISRG stock has been hanging in there through the current market correction, that’s a good sign. It has solid support between $325 and $350.
 
Estimates show growth is expected to slow 2QtrsOut but I believe the company will be able to keep the 30% growth going. At 30 times earnings, the stock is neither a bargain or expensive — its around where it should be.
Earnings Table
Profits jumped 33% last quarter, way better than the 22% 2QtrsAgo (see, momentum is improving). Sales rose 20%.
 
3QtrsAgo ISRG crushed estimates by 78 cents. 2QtrsAgo it only beat by 9 cents and the stock lost momentum. Now earnings momentum is back after the 21 cent beat LastQtr.
 
Annual Profit Estimates swelled. That’s a good sign.
Da Vinci’s need replacement parts to operate. Those parts comprise over 50% of ISRG revenue. So the company has a steady stream of revenue each quarter.
 
Quarterly estimates look decent. ISRG management usually beats the street so I’m not too concerned about the estimated “slowing growth” ahead.
Fair Value
ISRG is right at its 2011 Fair Value. Upside is fair for 2012 and bet ISRG will have better earnings than is currently expected.
Ten-Year Chart
ISRG stock has been fabulous for the past decade. I originally purchased the stock at $29 after the company beat the street on 10/27/04. I sold the stock during the downfall of 2008/2009 and bought it back on the way up (paying more). The point I’m trying to make is sometimes its better to hold this stock then sell it.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

18 of 19

Intuitive Surgical is where it should be. Investors who like to take profits can take profits in ISRG if it heads over $400. Long term investors can relax and sit with this stock, as there is solid support around these levels.
 
Intuitive Surgical is ranked 18 of 19 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings because I don’t see this stock being undervalued. ISRG is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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