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Awesome Quarter

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

$444

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

Novenber 16, 2011

Jan 16

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekISRG broke out last quarter. Intuitive Surgical gets revenue from two things:

  1. da Vinci robotic-doctor which costs an average of $1.46 million (as of last quarter)
  2. Replacement parts for the da Vinci, such as razor blades and replacement arms, which run $100,000 per-year, per-da Vinci.

ISRG had been getting more than 50% of its revenue from replacement parts. The more machines, the more parts you sell. System sales had been growing 10% a quarter for a while — but last quarter system sales jumped 25%.  

One-Year Chart

ISRG stock has been one of 2011’s winners. Kinda surprising to me, I was thinking of selling the stock (I’m glad I didn’t).

ISRG consistently beats the street, so the Estimates might be a little low. With a P/E of 32 on 2012’s earnings estimates, the stock is fairly valued at this point.

Earnings Table
Profits jumped 43% last quarter, and profit growth has accelerated for two quarters now. Sales rose 30%, better than the 21% 2QtrsAgo
 
ISRG beat the street by 28 cents. Sales came in 10% higher than analysts had expected.

Annual Profit Estimates climbed by around 50 cents for 2011, 2012 and 2013.
The company is expanding overseas, but some countries are still having economic problems.
 
Quarterly estimates show around 20% growth coming, and these estimates have increases for two straight quarters.
Fair Value
ISRG is within 10% of its 2012 Fair Value. The company will likely keep raising estimates, but the P/E probably won’t get any higher than 35.
Ten-Year Chart
ISRG broke out to new all-time highs in October. Investors liked the news, but volume has been lower in 2011 compared to years past. Also note this stock goes through volatile price swings, and right now the stock is high.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

17 of 20

Intuitive Surgical is on a roll and if da Vinci sales keep rising robustly, this stock could continue to rise in 2012. But for now the stock is selling around its Fair Value. If da Vinci sales grow by 10% next quarter, investors could take profits.
 
I have ISRG ranked 17 of 20 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings because I don’t see the P/E expanding much. ISRG is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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