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The Streak has Ended

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

$511

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

August 13, 2012

Oct 18

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekWhen I did my research report on ISRG last quarter the stock was on a 14-week winnings streak. That streak extended one more week before the stock went into a little three-week correction. Now ISRG is building a base, but the stock is sitting at its Fair Value so don’t expect big gains until the New Year approaches.
 
Last quarter was good. Revenue was up 26%, just a little less than the 28% growth seen the prior two quarters. da Vinci revenue grew 23% and replacement parts revenue grew 28%. Now parts revenue (the safe recurring revenue) is 57% of total sales, it used to be 50%.
One-Year Chart

This stock’s been hanging-in-there considering it went from $330 to $590 within one year. Now with a P/E of 34 this stock is where it should be. ISRG was a little overvalued last quarter. It looks like 9% growth is expected 2QtrsOut, but ISRG is expected to beat the street.

Earnings Table
Profits grew only 21% last quarter, on a 26% increase in sales. I don’t like to see the slowing growth, but I think 30% growth will come next quarter.
 
Intuitive Surgical continues to crush estimates — and has done so every quarter since 2009 Q2.
 
Annual Profit Estimates continue to climb, but at a slower rate than in 2011.
 
Quarterly estimates fell some and there’s two quarters of so-so growth expected. Again, ISRG should beat the street so I’m not concerned.
Fair Value
ISRG is selling right where it should be. I hold it because I’ve had it a while and its a long-term investment.
Ten-Year Chart
ISRG has been one of the top stocks in the last decade. I originally purchased shares at $29 on 10/27/04. Should have held all of them. Now ISRG has to digest the last big run-up, this stock might not move again until 2013.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

14 of 16

Intuitive Surgical probably won’t do anything for another three-to-six months. The stock is selling at its Fair Value and doesnt’ have momentum to push it much higher.
 
ISRG is a long-term holding. I like the stock but this isn’t anything to make a lot of money in over the short run. It’s ranked 14 of 16 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. ISRG is not a good choice for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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