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Estimate Jumps are Pushing this Stock

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG)

$461

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

February 1, 2012

Apr 17

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekIntuitive Surgical (ISRG) is rolling in the business. ISRG makes money by selling da Vinci’s and providing replacement parts to da Vincis already in use. . Last quarter ISRG sold 152 da Vincis, compared to 124 in the year-ago period. That’s 23% growth and is great news for shareholders. Two quarters ago system sales jumped 25%, so this is now two solid quarters in a row of new da Vinci sales.
 
Annual profit estimates keep leaping, and that’s the catalyst behind the stock right now. 2012 estimates have jumped 45 cents, 48 cents and 48 cents the last three quarters. 2013 estimates have lept even more.
One-Year Chart

ISRG has been stellar during the past year. The P/E of 32 is around where it should be, so this stock is selling close to its Fair Value.
 
Since ISRG is upping estimates and then beating them, I think 30-35% growth can be expected the next two quarters.

Earnings Table
Profits jumped 24% last quarter, and that was down from 43% the quarter earlier. Sales rose 28% LastQtr, 30% 2QtrsAgo, and 21% 3QtrsAgo.
 
ISRG beat the street by  a whopping 45 cents, the best beat in more than a year. Solid number.
 
Annual Profit Estimates keep jumping, 2012’s close to 50 cents a quarter — and we haven’t begun the 2012 fiscal year yet. At this pace ISRG could earn $16.50 this year — 32 times that is a $528 stock.
 
Quarterly estimates look very good, 20% of more growth is expected the next three quarters and these figures are growing.
Fair Value
For the second straight quarter, ISRG is within 10% of its 2012 Fair Value, yet the stock’s gone from $444 to $461. That’s because estimate jumps are pushing this stock.
Ten-Year Chart
What a pretty ten-year chart. Oh, except for the annihilation in 2008/2009. I originally bought ISRG in the 20s, and sold during this drop (only to buy back in at a higher price). At the time there were serious concerns about hospital financing.
 
This stock has compounded at 37% a year. ISRG is a little extended here, though.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

15 of 20

Intuitive Surgical keeps upping annual estimates and that keeps the stock on a roll. The stock is timely but the P/E isn’t low enough to give investors huge upside from here.
 
ISRG is ranked 15th of 20 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. ISRG is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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