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We Have More Oil

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Suncor (SU)

$47

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

March 2, 2011

May 4

Energy & Commodities

Sharek’s Take
David SharekSuncor was $36 last December 8th. I purchased the stock for the Growth Portfolio on January 31st at $41. Now SU is $47. I purchased this stock “because we need more oil” and the appreciation in Suncor stock has given us more oil.

Suncor is a Canadian integrated oil company, which brands include Sunoco (not the U.S. Sunoco) and Petro-Canada. Suncor was the first company to derive oil from oil-sands and now has grown into natural gas, and alternative energy with a investment in four wind farms.

2011 is all about energy. In the beginning of the year I thought there was a chance energy might be the only sector to make money this year, and at times that has been the case. Suncor gives us oil. Peabody (BTU) gives us coal. I would like to add another oil stock shortly — a big one like Exxon Mobil (XOM) or ConocoPhillips (COP) — and then we should be set.

One-Year Chart
SU’s one-year chart shows a stock that’s had a nice run. The chart makes SU too high to buy now as the closest support level is $35 — 26% down from here. Suncor’s P/E has recently risen from 15 to 20 so the stock’s not on sale like it was in the fourth quarter of 2010.

I think this estimated Long Term Growth Rate of 29% is too high. Maybe SU is a 20% grower. What I mean is this company can grow profits 20% a year, 29% a year seems like a stretch.

Earnings Table
Profits rose 171% on a 42% gain in revenue (gains were mainly from the merger with Petro-Canada). For 2010 revenue was $33 billion up from $22 billion the year earlier. In 2008 SU did $28 billion. Profit margins last quarter were significantly higher than a year ago.Suncor continues to beat earning estimates by healthy margins. Rising oil prices should help SU continue to beat the street. 

Annual Profit Estimates fell some, but that obviously didn’t hurt this stock which has been rising steadily even as most stocks in the market correct.

Quarterly estimates look solid but are expected to fluctuate.

Fair Value
Last quarter I thought SU’s P/E would go from 15 to 20 during the next year. Well now the P/E is already at 20. Since annual estimates declined, this stock is sitting at fair value.
Ten-Year Chart
The ten-year shows SU was a great investment for most of the decade, but crashed hard in 2008. The most profits ever made by Suncor was $3.15 in 2008. Su is expected to make $3.70 in two years. I think SU can get over the all-time high of $74 by then. Exxon is already at all-time highs even though profits haven’t gotten there yet.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio 

5 of 22

Suncor is in a solid uptrend but the stock is fairly valued at this moment. An increase in oil prices will probably help SU stock and its profits.

SU is ranked 5th in the 2 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. Hold what you have but I would hold off on new investments at this time.

I think we missed much of the run, and wish for a pullback before considering this stock for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio 

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