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Sales are Growing, Profits are Not

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

China Lodging Group (HTHT)

$19

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

April 5, 2011

May 9

Retail & Travel

Sharek’s Take
David SharekChina lodging is growing, but profits aren’t. The main reason is the World Expo was in China last year. Hotel rates were high and there were no vacancies. This year China hotels revert back to the norm, which means profits won’t be as robust this year. Still, this is a young growth story. Here’s projected revenue growth for the next two years:

2010 $263 mil
2011 $359 mil (+37%)
2012 $496 mil (+38%)

 

Obviously this is one of the premier growth companies in thw world, but its not a top growth stock because profits are expected to go from $0.56 last year to $0.49 this year.

One-Year Chart
China Lodging was doing good in 2010 when it had the wind to its back. Now the stock has built a base in the $16-$19 range. With a P/E of 39 and zero profit rgowth coming, there’s not enough juice for HTHT to breakout.
 
P/E of 39 is fair considering the estimated Long Term Growth Rate is a sparkling 45%
Earnings Table
Profit growth was 80% last quarter but that’s the end of the profit growth for now. Revenue rose 29%. 
 
HTHT beat by a penny last quarter but that number had dropped by two pennies a quarter earlier.

Annual Profit Estimates dropped a bit. This stock doesn’t have the momentum to breakout past $20.
 

Profit growth the next four quarters is hit-or-miss. It could be 2012 before these numbers look good again.

Fair Value
I had to take HTHT’s Fair Value P/E from 45 to 40 because estimates decreased. This stock is selling where it should be. Upside for those patient to hold is exceptional.
Ten-Year Chart
China Lodging went public in March 2010, opening at $13.50. The stock quickly became a winner then colled off after the World Expo.
 
Before this year, the company was growing profits very fast. Here’s its annual profits, including pre-IPO:
2006 -0.06
2007 -0.25
2008 -0.33
2009 0.11
2010 0.56
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

18 of 21

I could pull the trigger and sell HTHT but then the stock would probably take off and leave me behind. I’ll try to stay in for the long haul as after this year it looks like profits should surge each year.
 
HTHT is ranked 18th in the 21 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. This stock could base until late in 2011, but the Chinese stock market has been doing well this year and this stock could get some momentum by Summer.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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