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Good Growth Coming

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

MasterCard (MA)

$225

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

December 29, 2010

Jan 31

Financial

Sharek’s Take
David SharekMasterCard has been under government scrutiny this year — first the United States and now Canada — over fees the company charges. I think these concerns are shirt-term and once the issues are settled MA will earn a higher valuation. The big picture shows rising economies all around the world. More people are using plastic, with more purchases per consumer.
 
Last quarter I wrote “MasterCard management recently stated it expects profits (EPS) to grow greater than 20% a year through 2013“. With profits growing at 20% long-term, MA should be worth 20 times earnings. Right now the P/E is 14, giving the stock ample upside in 2011.
One-Year Chart
The one-year chart shows the stock dipped in December with the Canadian news. The drop made earlier in the year was US related. MA is down 12% in 2010 even though profits are expected to 224% this year — this stock has some catching up to do in 2011. Profits are expected to climb 22% this year and 19% in 2011. Yes, this stock should be selling for 20 times earnings. By the way, this stock had a P/E of 18 in the fourth quarter last year.
Earnings Table
Profits grew 13% last quarter (the slowest growth in a while) as revenue rose 5% for the second consecutive quarter. Management thinks International revenue should grow at greater than 10% a year during 2011-2013.
 
MasterCard whipped estimates, beating the street by 40 cents.Operating margin was 54% up 4% from last year as the company lowered operating expenses by 4% by reducing its workforces in 2009.
 
Annual profit estimates rose this quarter — to the highest level in more than a year.
 
Looking ahead to future quarters, NxtQtrEst got reduced a bit but 35% growth is still expected. The3QtrsOutEst and 4QtrsOutEst show 27% profit growth coming.
Fair Value
MasterCard is worth 20 times earnings in my eyes, with the current P/E of 14 this stock has solid upside of 40% in 2011. Looking out two years upside to fair value is 75% — solid for a Financial stock.
Ten-Year Chart
MA went public in 2006 and went on a tear higher because it kept whipping earnings estimates. I like that that the company beat by 40 cents last quarter, maybe that will be a trend.
 
This stock is also forming a large cup-and-handle with the cup coming in 2008-2009 and the handle being formed in 2010. MA can breakout with a close over $260 — in fact it almost did this month.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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I’m really excited about MasterCard in 2011. The low P/E and solid profit growth expected three-and-four quarters out give this financial stock good upside. MA is ranked 8th in the 18 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. Upside within two years is impressive, you just have to deal with political concerns.
 
MasterCard is ranked 6th in the 10 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. I thing upside within one year is solid.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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