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Buying Google as it Breaks Out

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Google (GOOG)

$585

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

November 1, 2011

Jan 20

Technology

Sharek’s Take
David SharekThis article is bring written December 13 as Google is breaking out past $630, the data is from January 20 when the stock was $585.
 
I will purchase Google (GOOG) today in the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio. Google will be one of my Top Ten selections in 2012 as it possesses tremendous upside from current levels due to its low P/E of 13.
One-Year Chart
Google hit a high of $628 during July and backed off. Now the stock si $633 and I’ve been waiting on GOOG to push through $630 before purchasing it.
 
What I really like is GOOG has a P/E of only 13 yet the company grew profits 27% last quarter. GOOG could get a P/E of 20, which would push the stock up around 50%. Not only that but the downside risk is low as its unlikely the P/E would drop below 12.
Earnings Table
Profits grew 27% last quarter and have increased by at least 20% each quarter during the past year. Sales grew a whopping 37%.
 
GOOG whipped up on estimates last quarter, beating by $1.40. The company missed by a penny 3QtrsAgo but has beaten by at least 75 cents in three of four quarters.
 
Annual Profit Estimates increased too, by around a couple bucks each year. There’s momentum here.
 
AQuarterly estimates jumped higher and high-teens growth is expected the next few quarters. GOOG could beat again and push out 25% profit growth. Not bad for 13 times earnings.
Fair Value
There’s solid upside potential for the next two years. I think the stock market has held quality stocks back this year, 2012 will be different and these 13 P/E stocks will rise.
Ten-Year Chart
This is a great view of the long base GOOG has built since October of 2009 — yes October 2009. Back in 2009/2010 the P/E was too high for the stock to break out. Now with 2012 earnings in play, the 13 P/E is just too low.
 
I think this stock will continue higher until around 18 times earnings, which is $800. There might be resistance around $750. With the stock at $634 now, upside is solid. Also notice profits have gone up consistently each year.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

7 of 20

I will sell Ancestory.com (ACOM) to make room for Google in the Growth Portfolio where the stock will be ranked 7th of 20 in the Power Rankings.
 
I will sell both Travelzoo (TZOO) and Netflix (NFLX) to gather assets to buy Google in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio, where GOOG will rank 7 of 10 stocks in the Power Rankings
TZOO and NFLX both had profit estimates lowered recently and although I’m bullish on both stocks long-term, this portfolio is designed for timely stocks.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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