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The Numbers Went Down. The Stock Went Up.

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Google (GOOG)

$629

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

August 8, 2012

Oct 10

Technology

Sharek’s Take
David SharekGoogle has been rising after it reported profits last quarter. But when I updated my spreadsheet, I see GOOG’s numbers have declined this quarter. So the stock’s rising even though numbers fell. I think that’s because GOOG was undervalued. Right now the stock’s a 15% grower with a 15 P/E — its Fairly Valued. Additionally, since this is a 15% grower now, its not a great growth stock, and I should get rid of it in my Growth Portfolio…after the run higher is done.
One-Year Chart
The first thing I notice in the one-year chart is there is little grean across the bottom of the chart. 
 
GOOG is also approaching resistance in the $650s. My guess is the stock won’t breakout. So we should sell if this stock moves past $655.
Earnings Table
Revenue jumped 39% last quarter. Wow! 2QtrsAgo revenue grew 24%. Profits only increased 16% LastQtr. What the? Management is probably pissing money away.
 
Now I show GOOG missed estimates for three consecutive quarters. Not good.
 
Annual Profit Estimates have declined since 4QtrsAgo. 2012 was $44 and is now $43. 2013 was $51, now $49. This isn’t a great growth stock.

 
Quarterly estimates fell across the board. 15% growth on average the next four quarters, GOOG’s P/E is 15.
Fair Value
Google is around its Fair Value. Not much upside here.
Ten-Year Chart
I used to think GOOG was going to break out of this three-year trading range and then bolt higher. Since profit growth has now slowed, I now think that won’t happen until next year.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

15 of 15

Google keeps going up yet the numbers are coming down. The stock is growing profits at 15% and the P/E is 15. Ride the momentum and sell when the stock stops rising. This isn’t a great growth stock. 
 
GOOG is now on the Chopping Block and I’m set to sell it from the Growth Portfolio. In my Power Rankings the stock is ranked 15th of 15 stocks.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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