| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) |
$83 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
May 31, 2011 |
Jul 25 |
Food & Necessities |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Green Mountain has has partnered with Sarbucks to make K-cups for them. The Starbucks deal took me by surprise, as SBUX’s CEO stated (hinted) he was trying to get Starbucks to do its own single-serve packets. That was just talk. Now GMCR owns the single-serve market. The company also added Dunkin Donuts as a customer last quarter.
This stock is on fire — its riding a double shot of espresso — and all the numbers are high (profit growth, P/E). RIght now I think this stock needs to take a breather but I will not recomend investors sell their shares. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 Green Mountain has gone from $40 to $83 since my last report. On March 10th the stock went from $44 to $62 when it partnered with Sarbucks. Then on May 4th GMCR went from $64 to $76 after reporting last quarter’s earnings.
P/E’s gone from 33 to 56. Wow, quarterly profits have been doubling — and could continue to double if GMCR beats by a little the next two quarters. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Profits rose 140% LastQtr, up from the 100% increase a 2QtrsAgo. Sales rose 101% up from 65% the quarter before. GMCR raised prices 10% last quarter and will probably do it again soon because coffee prices are high.
The company beat by 10 cents last quarter, it had been beating by only a penny or two — momentum is high!2011 profits are due to climb to $1.47 from $0.70 last year — that’s more than double! Annual Profit Estimates rose mightily.Profits could double the next two quarters. Wow, there’s a lot of doubles in this article. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 The company is growing so fast it’s hard for me to get a handle on a fair P/E. Let’s say 40 times earnings for now. GMCR’s fiscal year end is September 30th. Next quarter I can get a firmer grasp of what GMCR is worth. Right now the $83 stock seems to be worth $84 in late 2011/early 2012. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 Green Mountain is very extended in the ten-year chart. Wow, very extended. This stock needs to correct and/or build a new base. The stock looks like a rocket. I bought GMCR in February 2009 at $9, it would be nice to get a ten-bagger someday. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
6 of 20 |
GMCR is currently ranked 6th in the twenty stock Growth Portfolio and ten stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. Green Mountain’s business and GMCR stock are both red hot. But since the stock’s doubled since last quarter and the P/E is 56 (until next quarter) I think this is about as good as it gets for now.
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
6 of 10 |
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