| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) |
$96 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
August 6, 2011 |
Oct 26 |
Food & Necessities |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Green Mountain had an awesome quarter. Higher coffee prices pushed profit margins from 34% to 37% last quarter. New licencing deals with Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts, Folgers and Smucker’s have increased demand as well as margins.Business is so strong that management took 2012 analysts estimates up another 20%.The stock is on a tear, going from $33 to $96. Still, the stock’s not expensive (unlike coffee).
GMCR ends its calendar year September 30th, so I’ve looked ahead to next year’s estimates to get a reasonable 37 P/E. Since the company keeps knocking the cover off the ball. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 Green Mountain popped to a new hall-time high after the stellar earnings were announced. Profits have been growing triple-digits for a year now — and that looks to continue.Since last quarter the P/E’s gone from 56 to 37 and the estimated Long Term Growth Rate has increased from 30% to 37%. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Profits rose 158% LastQtr. Sales growth was even more impressive, jumping 130% up from 101% 2QtrsAgo and 65% 3QtrsAgo.GMCR beat by 13 cents last quarter, up from 10 cents 2QtrsAgo and 1 cent 3QtrsAgo. Momentum is humming. I may have to buy more shares.The company bumped 2012 Annual Profit Estimates to $2.55-$2.65. Analysts had projected $2.10. That’s a big time move higher. Usually analysts make big increases like this, the company saying it carries even more weight (and makes me think $3 or more is coming).Quarterly estimates are sensational. These numbers keep increasing too. Profits are currently expected to climb 79% over the next four quarters (that is if they haven’t increased yet). |
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| Fair Value | ||
 The negative is GMCR is selling close to its Fair Value. If the stock is worth 40 times earnings, well that’s only 9% away. Upside is solid if you look out to 2013, but that’s a long way away. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 GMCR is on a parabolic move in the ten-year chart. After a move like this, a market correction usually takes these high fliers down. So far GMCR is hanging in there — the numbers are so strong. I bought GMCR in February 2009 at $9, its a ten-bagger (but I sold a lot on the way up). |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
5 of 20 |
Green Mountain’s business is humming along and high coffee prices are boosting profit margins. These numbers are excellent, and the only reason GMCR isn’t ranked higher is other stocks have lower P/E’s.GMCR is currently ranked 5th in the twenty stock Growth PortfolioPower Rankings. It’s 4th in the eleven stockAggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings because the stock is timely, and this portfolio rolls with what’s hot.
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
4 of 10 |
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