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Look to the Future

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Catamaran (CTRX)

$97

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

September 28, 2012

Oct 29

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekCatalyst Health Solutions (CHSI) and SXC Health Solutions (SXCI) are merging to make Catamaran (CTRX).  If you want specifics on the deal click here. The new company should make more money than the two separate ones did — in 2013 that is. This year? 2012 estimates just declined — as 2013’s and 2014’s increased. I’m just sitting on the stock and looking to the future — this stock should be a winner next year and beyond. 
 
After reporting results last quarter, management stated its deal pipeline is very robust. That’s great. Analysts didn’t seem upset about 2012’s numbers going down. It seems like they already accounted for this. This is my first research report on CTRX.
One-Year Chart
Both stocks popped after the merger was announced, but now that they trade under one symbol, the stock’s hitting overhead resistance and can’t break through. The P/E is currently 44 but when I look to 2013 profits the P/E is just 27.
 
Profit growth might be slow next quarter, but then it’s set to accelerate big time.
Earnings Table
Profits grew 29% LastQtr as sales rose 40%. This company could grow at 40% a year for a number of years.
 
CTRX technically missed by 6 cents last quarter but that was because of a 6 cent charge for merger related activity, which is acceptable.
 
2012 estimates declined, but 2013’s and 2014’s increased. Look to the future.
 
Next quarter could show only modest profit growth, but then profits are seat to soar by the second quarter of 2013.
Fair Value
So CTRX is worth $76 now and $126 next year. The midpoint is $101, which is around where the stock is now.
Ten-Year Chart
The past data is from SXCI. I shoulda bought the stock years ago but had a lot of PBMs at the time. This company has been clicking since 2009. Don’t bet against it.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

10 of 16

Once the merger is complete, Catamaran will be poised to grow rapidly in the future. I’m guessing the company and stock could grow 25% to 40% a year. But right now the stock might not go anywhere because the P/E is high. 
 
CHSI is ranked 10th in the 16 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. CHSI isn’t part of the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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