| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Vipshop (VIPS) |
$168 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
May 28, 2014 |
N/A |
Retail & Travel |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Vipshop, an online flash-sale discount retailer in China, is simply on fire. The stock’s gone from $30 to almost $180 in a year, and deservedly so. Vipshop’s sales and profits are flying higher. Sales were $700 million in 2012, and will likely be $3.5 billion this year. But to get a full grasp of how hot this company is you have to look at the quarterly profits. Here’s the last 8 qtrs: $-0.08, $0.01, $0.16, $0.17, $0.20, $0.26, $0.49, $0.63. And here’s the next 4 qtrs est: $0.64, $0.66, $0.94, $0.97. AND VIPS has been crushing earnings estimates, so these are likely too low. Although business is booming, the stock has a P/E of 61. I think VIPS’s momentum will keep it going higher, but feel the stock has just 15% upside to 2014’s Fair Value of $193, but my 2015 Fair Value is $325, almost a double from here. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 VIPS’s one year chart is textbook. Triple digit profit growth. High Est. LTG of 59% per year. Yes the P/E seems high but most of the greatest stock market winners seemed to have high P/Es until they came in with big profits. If VIPS makes $5 next year it’s selling for 35x that. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Sales were $700 million last qtr, up from $300 million a year ago and profits soared 271% from $0.17 to $0.63. Understand that’s from seventeen cents to sixty-three cents. In one year.VIPS crushed estimates that had been upped big time in prior qtrs. Last year the company was supposed to make $0.23 in Q1 and it in fact made $0.63. Annual Profit Estimates continue to soar. 2014’s estimate is $2.76, my guess is VIPS will make $3.50-$4. This estimates used to be $1.54. Quarterly estimates look amazing and are flying higher. VIPS is on fire! |
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| Fair Value | ||
 I’m putting a Fair Value of 70 times earnings on this stock, but we have no idea what VIPS can make. Seems like $10 is possible in 2016. Right now the stock’s close to Fair Value, but when you look at future earnings it has unknown upside. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 The ten-year chart shows the stock continues to be on a parabolic move. The P/E of 61 also makes the stock dangerous. These are two reasons I don’t have VIPS ranked higher in my Power Rankings. When this stock does correct, it will likely be hard. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
6 of 25 |
Vipshop is on fire! Business is booming and the stock is flying higher. How much can you sell at a discount online in China? The potential is enormous. The negatives are VIPS is in a parabolic move and has a high P/E. VIPS is ranked 6th in both the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
6 of 12 |
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