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Pure Imagination

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Vipshop (VIPS)

$140

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

March 23, 2014

 N/A

Retail & Travel

Sharek’s Take
David SharekAs a portfolio manager, owning Vipshop (VIPS) is like being a kid in Willy Wonka’s Chocolate Factory. Vipshop.com‘s sales are soaring so fast it seems imaginary. The company did $650 million last quarter, more than double the $300 million it did in the year-ago period. A couple qtrs ago we thought VIPS would make a profit of $0.34 during 2013’s Q4, it delivered $0.49 instead. Profits have gone from zilch a couple of years ago, to $1 last year, more than $2 this year and probably $4 next year. VIPS is one of these once-in-a-lifetime investments that is making dreams come true.
One-Year Chart
VIPS_2014_Q1Wanna change the world? VIPs shows there’s nothing to it. The Est LTG of 58% is as high as one could imagine. Triple-digit profit growth every qtr. The only issue VIPS is having is the stock has gone from $5 to $150 during the past two years.
Earnings Table
VIPS_2014_Q1_EPSIf you want to view paradise, simple look to the right and view it — it’s all in green, including 206% profit growth last quarter on 117% sales growth.
 
VIPS beat expectations by 10 cents last quarter, and momentum is building here.
 
Annual Profit Estimates
 are soaring like a hot air balloon. How much can the company actually earn? It’s pure imagination.
 
Quarterly estimates are sparkling, and to put a cherry on top VIPS upped next qtr’s sales estimate from $550 million to $650 million.
Fair Value
VIPS_2014_Q1_PHTo guess at how much this stock is worth we would have to gauge how much the company will make. Hard to do since it keeps printing golden tickets. These stocks that have estimates which defy gravity are often given P/Es of 70 or more. Realistically, VIPS could make $6 next year and a P/E of 50 would get the stock to $300.
Ten-Year Chart
VIPS_2014_Q1_10yrThis is the epitome of a parabolic move. This stock could be in for a nasty correction if the market comes under pressure. But with profits flying its hard for VIPS to give up much, if the company makes $5 then it will most likely not fall below $100.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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Vipshop is an amazing company putting out figures that my imagination could only dream of. It’s certainly a top growth stock to own. But VIPS has already gone in a splendid move higher and could give its investors a nasty correction.
 
VIPS is ranked 7th in both the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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