TJX (TJX) Stock Free Falls, But Now the Stock is at its Biggest Discount in Years

Stock (Symbol)

TJX (TJX)

Stock Price

$125

Sector

Data is as of

Expected to Report

Company Description

TJX Companies, Inc. (TJX) is an off-price apparel and home fashion retailer in the United States and across the world.

The Company operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International.

T.J. Maxx and Marshalls chains in the United States (Marmaxx) are collectively the off-price retailers in the United States with approximately 2,532 stores.

The HomeGoods chain is an off-price retailer of home fashions in the United States with approximately 922 stores.

The TJX Canada segment operates the Winners, HomeSense, and Marshalls chains in Canada.

Winners is the off-price apparel and home fashion retailer in Canada.

HomeSense offers home fashions off-price concepts in Canada.

The TJX International segment operates the T.K. Maxx and HomeSense chains in Europe.

Through its stores and its e-commerce site for the U.K., tkmaxx.com, T.K. Maxx offers a merchandise mix similar to T.J. Maxx. Source: Refinitiv

Sharek’s Take

TJX is the largest major international off-price retailer in the world, which operates in the U.S. since 1976, in Canada since 1990 (Winners), and in the U.K. and Ireland since 1994 (where its stores are named as T.K. Maxx). The company offers a rapidly changing assortment of quality brand names and designer merchandise that is 20% to 60% below full-price retailers. TJX is a powerhouse, with 1,400 buyers that source goods from 21,000 vendors in over 100 countries. The company traces its roots back to 1956 when the Zayre discount department store was founded. The company opened its first T.J. Maxx in 1976, and eventually sold the Zayre brand to Ames in 1988, then was renamed to TJX Companies and focused on T.J. Maxx. As of August 1, 2026, TJX had 5285 stores in operation. Management expects it can expand by over 1,700 stores worldwide in the coming years, aiming for a long-term total of 7,500 locations.

TJX divisions include:

• Marmaxx: the company’s T.J. Maxx and Marshalls stores. TJX was founded in 1976 and acquired Marshalls in 1995 (doubling the company’s size). Both chains sell apparel and home furnishings. What differentiates the two chains is T.J. Maxx has a bigger selection of jewelry as well as high-end designer clothes, while Marshalls has footwear and more men’s clothes. This division includes Sierra (formerly Sierra Trading Post), an off-price outdoor recreation that TJX acquired in 2018 with sporting goods, camping, and fishing gear, as well as snow and water sports equipment.
• HomeGoods/HomeSense: HomeGoods is a chain of home furnishing stores it launched in 1992, with furniture, rugs, lighting, accessories, and cookware. HomeSense, a similar concept, was launched in 1997.
• TJX Canada: this segment operates Winners, the leading off-price apparel and home furnishings retailer in Canada, as well as HomeSense and Marshalls chains.
• TJX International: this segment consists of T.K. Maxx and HomeSense in Europe and T.K. Maxx in Australia. T.K. Maxx was launched in 1994 and is the only major brick-and-mortar off-price retailer in Europe. TJX currently operates in 10 countries and plans to expand its footprint by opening at least 1,700 additional stores across these markets.

TJX has been an all-time stock market winner as it soared from $0.05 to $157 since 1980. It is currently around a 10% to 12% grower that also pays a 1% dividend yield. Store expansion of 5%, in addition to mid-single-digit same-store sales and a large stock buyback program, makes it possible for TJX to grow profits at a low double-digit rate (maybe 10% to 12% per year). Prior to 2020, TJX raised its dividend every year since 1996 at an average rate of more than 20%. Sadly, management stopped paying the dividend during the COVID-19 outbreak. It’s since been reinstated. The company buys back stock too. In 2025, management bought back $2.5 billion in stock and paid $1.8 billion in dividends. 2019 was TJX’s 24th consecutive year of same-store sales increases, but that streak ended in 2020. TJX is a core holding in the Conservative Growth Portfolio.

One Year Chart

With a P/E of 24, I think the stock is 13% undervalued. My Fair Value is a P/E of 27. 

The Estimated Long Term Growth is 10%, up from 9% last quarter. I have faith this company can grow profits 10% to 12% a year.

Profit growth has been good over the past four quarters. Although growth is expected to simmer down, TJX has been beating analyst profit estimates.

Earnings Table

Last quarter, TJX delivered 11% profit growth and beat expectations of 8% growth. Revenue growth met estimates of 5%.

• Gross profit margin increased to 33.4% from last year’s 30.7% due to improved merchandise margins, mostly due to tariff favorability.
• Beginning in 2027, TJX plans to grow stores 4% annually, adding 500 to reach 7,500 stores across its existing banners and 10 countries. This reflects the long-term potential for TJ Maxx and Marshalls to add 300 stores, reaching a combined 3,300 stores, while HomeGoods can add 200 stores, reaching 2,000.
• TJX recorded solid sales performance from Europe and Australia.

Here are the divisional sales growth and SSS growth from last quarter:

• Marmaxx (TJ Maxx & Marshalls): Sales +3%, SSS +1%.
• HomeGoods: Sales +10%, SSS +7%.
• TJX Canada: Sales +6%, SSS +6%.
• TJX International: Sales +11%, SSS +7%.

Annual Profit Estimates are mixed this quarter. Management expects SSS to grow by 2–3% next quarter and 3–4% in 2026.

Quarterly Profit Estimates for the next 4 quarters are 5%, 5%, 3%, and 10% growth. Looks like slower growth on the horizon unless TJX can beat the street. For the next quarter, analysts estimate revenue growth to be at 5%.

Fair Value

This quarter, the stock is $125, giving it a P/E of 24. 

My Fair Value is a P/E of 27. So the shares are 13% undervalued in my opinion as I feel they are worth $141.

TJX has a Fiscal year-end on January 31st.

Bottom Line

TJX (TJX) has been one of the stock market’s finest stocks the past 35 years. This is a well-oiled machine that is a juggernaut in the world of fashion.

TJX stock had a big flush after the stock had been in a long-term uptrend. I think the big reason for the decline was due to investors like me not wanting to overpay to buy the stock.

TJX jumps into the top ten in the Conservative Portfolio Power Rankings. The stock moves up from 18th to 10th in the rankings. I’ll add to my position.

Power Rankings

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Focus List

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Conservative Stock Portfolio

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