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Lost the Momentum

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Nu Skin (NUS)

$49

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

May 2, 2012

July 30

Food & Necessities

Sharek’s Take
David SharekLike many stocks, Nu Skin (NUS) took it on the chin after reporting earnings this month. Some of this is because Herbalife (HLF) has had its direct-selling method “questioned” by David Einhorn. NUS uses a direct selling platform too, and investors are a little quirmish right now.
 
Also, there’s been a lot of stocks getting hit after reporting earnings this month. Honestly, NUS was fairly valued at $60. The stock hit $60 earlier in the year and didn’t have enough juice to go higher. Now at $49, NUS has upside of 20% this year.
One-Year Chart
Well, now we know what P/E NUS tops out at — 20. The stock couldn’t quite hold onto that valuation, and fell a bit after reporting last quarter.
 
Estimates show 7% growth two quarters from now, but that’s not a concern. NUS did a lot of new business in the second half of last year, comparisons will be tough later this year.
Earnings Table
Sales grew 16% last quarter, down from 23% the quarter before. Profit growth was a solid 32%. NUS has a gross profit margin of 80%.

NUS keeps beating the street. Last quarter it was by four cents, and this number had been upped in each of the last three prior quarters.
 
Annual Profit Estimates rose once again. I want to point out the 2014 estimate has only one analyst, so although this number looks great, its only one persons opinion.
 
Quarterly comparisons are tough because NUS had lots of new product orders during the second half of last year. Expect Q3 and Q4 to be slow-growth periods. Just deal with it.

Fair Value
Profit growth has not slowed yet, and might now slow. I’m keeping my Fair Value at 20 times earnings.
Ten-Year Chart
One thing I’m concerned with is NUS has grown profits at only 15% a year during the last decade. True, profit growth has been great the last five years, but 13% growth expected this year isn’t much. NUS also pays a yield of 1.8%.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

12 of 18

Nu Skin had serious momentum last quarter and now has lost it. The stock is now undervalued by 20%. The company keeps beating the street and pays a yield of almost 2%. This is a good company, although I’m concerned profit growth could slow to 15% in the coming year.
  
NUS is ranked 12th in the 18 stock in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. This is not a good selection for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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