| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Nu Skin (NUS) |
$44 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
December 11, 2014 |
Mar 02 – Mar 06 |
Food & Necessities |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Things couldn’t be worse for Nu Skin. During 2014 the company was accused, investigated and eventually fined (just) $500,000 by China for illegal sales practices. Nu Skin subsequently suspended its China operations (around 40% of sales) for a number of months and lost some leading salespeople. But now that Nu Skin is operating in China again, it hasn’t yet gotten the bounce-back we have been waiting for. In fact, NUS just slashed 2015 EPS est for the 4th consecutive qtr. Even through all this, I’ve held the stock as I feel its bottomed and will someday roar higher. The key to this is China rebounding, but things have been so bad that even a modest rise in estimates could light a fire under the stock. Nu Skin is an innovator in Anti-aging skin care technology, which is led by its AgeLOC product line. During 2013 this was a stock market leader with blistering sales and profit growth. A new product (catalyst) could be what the stock is looking for, but might not be until the 2nd half of 2015. This $44 stock is expected to make $4 in profits this year, down from $6 in 2013. If the company someday $6 again and gets a 20 P/E then the stock will be $120. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 Everything here looks bad. Except the 11 P/E. And the base NUS is building, which could be the start of a saucer bottom. The company just slashed 4th qtr sales est from $660 million to $600 million, but the stock stayed in this base, good. Est, LTG is -5%? I doubt it. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Nu Skin’s sales dropped like a rock last quarter. Down 30%, much worse than the -5% 2QtrsAgo. Profits fell 38%, but the company still made $1.12.NUS beat the street by 19 cents, but these estimates had dropped $1 the past few qtrs. Annual Profit Estimates got slashed for 2015 & 2016. Qtrly estimates went way down. These numbers look ugly. But I think we could see profit growth in early 2015, and that could be the turning point. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 This company was growing rapidly until last year. I feel this is issue will someday be resolved and the stock will bounce back in a big way. I’m tempted to add to my position, but feel there’s risk NUS could drop to $30 with another bad report. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 In the ten-year chart, note Yearly Profit Growth is 14% and Yearly Stock Growth is just 6%. These numbers should be more in line, which is why I feel the stock has a rebound coming. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
22 of 23 |
Nu Skin has nothing going for it right now, except that the worst is probably behind dit. This is a classic value play on a growth stock. Unfortunately value plays often take a while to pan out. This is a small position in my portfolio, and I’m willing to wait it out. NUS is ranked 22nd of 23 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. NUS is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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