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I Sparked a Rally

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Nu Skin (NUS)

$53

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

February 8, 2011

May 1

Food & Necessities

Sharek’s Take
David SharekToday I will purchase Nu Skin (NUS) for the Growth Portfolio. I spent last weekend researching NUS. The company uses its scientists to develop skin treatments for healthy looking skin, its top product is ageLOC. I like ageLOC and think this will continue to spur sales and profit growth for years. For more juicy stuff, read Nu Skin’s 2011 Fact Sheet
 
My Nu Skin article posted on Sunday titled Nu Skin Delivers Healthy Looking Skin was published when the stock was $54. Then NUS broke out and closed at $56 yesterday and as I write this it’s $59 (note, the data and tables in this article are from 2/8/011). It could be said my article on NUS Sunday sparked a rally this week. I didn’t know I had that much pull.
One-Year Chart
I shoulda bought NUS when the stock broke out at $35 last year. But profit growth was 17% then. Now growth is 31%.
 
NUS has a P/E of 18 but the estimated Long Term Growth Rate is only 10%. The LTG isn’t very high and might keep NUS from being a top-flight growth stock.
Earnings Table
Sales grew 23% last quarter, and that pushed profits up 31%. NUS has a gross profit margin of 80%.
 
The top 3/4 of this earnings table is clean. NUS has beaten the street in each of the last four quarters — and has been upping quarterly estimates before the beat. This is a quality stock.
 
Annual Profit Estimates has been increasing little-by-little for the past year — good.
 
Quarterly estimates look poor further out in the year. I’ve been tracking NUS for a while and the far-out estimates always look poor. I think management underpromises and overdelivers on purpose.
Fair Value
The bad news is NUS is selling around its Fair Value. Upside isn’t great.
Ten-Year Chart
I should have had this stock when it broke out past $35 in May 2011. But then the estimates never looked great. Look at the 10% growth expected for this year — that’s not awe inspiring.
 
NUS wasn’t a great stock from 2005-2008. agoLOC has really helped things recently. NUS pays a dividend of 1.4%.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

8 of 20

Nu Skin has serious momentum right now. The only problem is the stock’s already run higher and shares are selling close to their Fair Value. As I complete this research report, the stock’s lost steam and fell from $59 to $57 since I started writing. 
 
NUS is ranked 8th in the 20 stock in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. Although NUS has momentum, the stock is real close to its 2012 fair value and isn’t good enough for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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