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Not So Perfect

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Michael Kors (KORS)

$80

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

November 22, 2013

Feb 10 – Feb 14

Retail & Travel

Sharek’s Take
David SharekMichael Kors is not so perfect last quarter. Specifically, profit growth fell from 79% to 45% last quarter as sales growth slowed from 55% to 39%. The company only beat the street by 4 cents, and estimates didn’t increase like they usually do. But STILL this continues to be the top growth stock to own. KORS is humming right along and only sells for 23 times next year’s earnings. Among the good points, European sales grew 101% as same store sales there popped 56%. The store count jumped to 352 from 269 a year ago. My calculations show the stock put in another double by 2015.
One-Year Chart
KORS_2013_Q4Focus on the quarterly profit growth at the bottom of the chart. It’s been slowing for four quarters now. That trend looks to continue unless KORS can beat by a decent amount this quarter.
Earnings Table
KORS_2013_Q4_EPSProfits grew 45% last quarter on a 29% increase in sales. I’m disappointed profits weren’t better. Same store sales grew 23%.
 
This is the first quarter KORS didn’t crush estimates since it went public in 2011. It only beat by 4 cents, after beating by 12 cents a quarter earlier.
 
Annual Profit Estimates didn’t increase as much as they usually do.
 
Quarterly estimates show profit growth continuing to tick down. Still good, just not great.
Fair Value
KORS_2013_Q4_PHI’m taking my Fair Value P/E down from 45 to 38. STILL there’s 64% upside in 2014. I see the stock doubling in two years.
Ten-Year Chart
KORS_2013_Q4_10yrThis stock continues to climb higher. But even at these highs, the P/E is only 23.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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Michael Kors isn’t as perfect as it once was. Instead of growing 60% it’s growing 40%. But still, the stock’s selling for only 23 times next year’s earnings and the P/E should be at least 35. This stock should continue to rise high next year and beyond.
 
Michael Kors is my top stock for 2014. It’s ranked #1 in the Growth Portfolio and
Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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