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Google’s Looking Good

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Google (GOOGL)

$523

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

April 28, 2014

Jul 14 – Jul 18

Technology

Sharek’s Take
David SharekGoogle’s (GOOGL) almost $100 off its recent highs, but more of that can be attributed it to the stock market (and tech stocks) being in a correction. Google has a catalyst, and that catalyst is not having the money-pit Motorola Mobility on the books anymore. That plus normal business activity should push profits up 20% this year — probably more. The combination of better profits plus a higher P/E could push this stock up 50% over the next two years. Note the company split its stock and my investors with one share of GOOG with a cost basis of $1207 got one share of GOOG with a cost basis of $603 and one share of GOOGL at $605. GOOGL is where Thomson has this company’s data and I will continue to own that stock and sell GOOG.
One-Year Chart
GOOGL_2014_Q2Here’s the one-year chart of Google. Profit growth the last year was hampered by Motorola Mobility, and now the profits are free to run. I think if the company delivers 30% growth next quarter that will turn heads and attract investors.
 Earnings Table
GOOGL_2014_Q2_EPSGoogle’s sales growth was only 10% last quarter, down from 29% two quarters ago, but these numbers are jaded because of Motorola. Theres’ a lot of numbers with GOOGL’s sales, but the company is growing 20% to 25%. Profit growth was only 8% last quarter, but that should bounce back.

The company beat by 12 cents but is notorious for either beating or missing by a lot.

Annual Profit Estimates increased a bit, but were lowered a bit 2QtrsAgo.

Quarterly estimates look solid, and that’s what I like about this report.

Fair Value
There’s significant upside to 2015’s Fair Value — 51%. Google stock should be one of the stock market leaders over the next two years, and I think GOOGL’s growth will push the market higher.
Ten-Year Chart
GOOGL_2014_Q2_10yrSince 2007 owning this stock has been like riding a mechanical bull. The hardest part has been the company missing estimates (causing me to sell) then beating them. Two years of only 10% profit growth shook out a lot of people (including me). In many ways this isn’t my type of stock.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

15 of 25

Google should have some good growth coming ahead, and the combination of this plus a higher P/E could make the stock rise 50% over the next two years.

GOOG is ranked 15th of 25 stocks in the Growth Portfolio
 Power Rankings. I don’t trust the stock enough for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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