| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Deckers Outdoor (DECK) |
$100 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
September 20, 2011 |
Oct 28 |
Retail & Restaurant |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
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One negatives shoes are sold when economies are humming. A turn down in the economy typically hurts shoe manufacturers. Although Deckers can be adversely affected by a poor economy, the stock is one of the decades best and I am inclined to hold it if the economy turns down. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 Decker’s one-year chart is showing almost a year-long base. The stock market has been highly volatile this year, and DECK’s ability to hold its own is admirable.Profit have been hurt the last couple of quarters from infrastructure spending. Growth looks to pick up now that we are in the Fall and Winter seasons. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 DECK posted a loss last quarter. Sales grew only 13% LastQtr after a 31% increase 2QtrsAgo and 24% 3QtrsAgo. Last quarter Deckers shifted some $50 million in revenue from last quarter to this quarter. The company expects sales to grow 38% this quarter and 22% the quarter after.
DECK beat by 4 cents, but these estimates had been lowered a bunch. The market hasn’t punished DECK for lowering quarterly estimates — it sees the potential.Annual Profit Estimates continue to increase. Next year’s profits are expected to rise 21% and DECK management has a history of underpromising and overdelivering.
Profit growth is set to pick back up this quarter. The 2QtrsOut estimate is currently 39% — this is Decker’s highest revenue and sales quarter (the Winter season) — thecompany has the ability to put up 50% profit growth. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 Deckers is currently undervalued by 20%. The 45% upside to Fair Value next year looks great. If margins do better than analysts think, this stock could go even higher. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 Boom! This stock’s been awesome during the past ten-years. Profit growth of 45% PER YEAR and stock growth of 55% PER YEAR.Profit growth is expected to clock in at 19% for 2011. This is a year of transition that should lead to higher profit growth next year. The company is setting it self up well for 2012. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
8 of 20 |
Deckers is currently ranked 8th out of 20 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. There’s good things ahead for 2012 and DECK continues to be a long-term winner. Deckers is ranked 6th of 1 stocks in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. DECK is trying to break out and is a good stock to own in this more aggressive portfolio. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
7 of 12 |
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Deckers is growing its infrastructure this year. The company is expanding heavily overseas to operate a wholesale business that will ship direct to shoe stores. Deckers is also opening its own retail stores to sell directly to customers. Additionally, company is ramping up its eCommerce. All this adds up to higher sales and much higher profit margins. The stock market knows this, and keeps DECK around its all-time high even though quarterly estimates have declined three times this year.