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CaesarStone: The Outlook is Bad

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

CaesarStone (CSTE)

$63

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

February 25, 2015

May 6 – May 11

Retail & Travel

Sharek’s Take
CaesarStone (CSTE), a quartz counter top manufacturer, lowered revenue guidance after it reported last qtr’s earnings, and now profit growth is expected to be just 3% this year on a 14% rise in sales. The stock sold off a bit after the bad news, but has now recovered. Still, at 26x earnings this $63 stock has a Fair Value of $58 for 2015. One good thing is the company is finishing completion of a new $115 million plant in Georgia and 1st line should be operational in Q2 with another line going by Q4 — and CSTE has Ikea selling its product to create demand for the extra supply. I’m guessing sales will come in higher than expectations, but still the profit growth of 3% for this year isn’t much. I’ll hold on to CSTE for now but may sell some shares in client accounts, as I feel 2016 will be a good year but we might have to sit on this stock until then.
Just One-Year Chart
CSTE_2015_Q1The Estimates don’t look good, and CSTE didn’t beat the street last qtr, it just met estimates. The 26 P/E is just what I thought the stock would should for when I wrote this research report last qtr but now 2015’s profit estimate has dropped from $2.81 to $2.40.
Earnings Table
CSTE_2015_Q1_EPSSales growth was just 17% last qtr down from 31% two qtrs ago. Profit growth clocked in at a respectable 20%.

CSTE merely met estimates after crushing them by 15 cents the qtr before.

Annual Profit Estimates
had a big drop — so much I had to take a second look to make sure I had the numbers right.

Quarterly estimates look bad — and keep going down. The only thing keeping me in the stock is the potential of the new plant
.

Fair Value
CSTE_2015_Q1_PHI reduced my Fair Value P/E slightly from 26 to 24 as the company still has a bright future despite the reduced outlook. But now I think the stock could be around this price all year.  
Ten-Year Chart
CSTE_2015_Q1_10yrVery nice ten-year chart so far outside the 3% profit growth expected this year.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

20 of 24

CaesarStone just lowered estimates and at 26 times earnings I didn’t think the stock can move much higher this year. The new plant opening gives me hope for the future, otherwise I would be selling the stock. Still, I’ll reduce my position some because I think I can put the money to better use.

CSTE is ranked 20th of 24 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.
It doesn’t look good enough for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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