| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Biogen (BIIB) |
$319 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
August 3, 2015 |
Oct 20 – Oct 26 |
Healthcare |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Biogen (BIIB) gave its investors a double whammy last month when it announced poor trial data on its developing Alzheimer’s drug then slashed overall guidance two days later. Revenue guidance fell from 14%-16% growth to 6%-8%. After the dust settled 2015’s profit estimate fell from $16.69 to 15.92 and 2016’s from $19.32 to $17.71. Still, this may not be enough as this is the 2nd straight qtr the company had a shortfall in its MS drug Tecfidera. At 20x earnings, the stock seems to be fairly valued here, but the appeal has diminished. I personally would have sold the stock if it not for the Alzheimer’s drug, which could be a windfall. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 This was an ugly couple of weeks for BIIB. The stock opened lower after the company reported profits, then went into a free-fall during the day, then rebounded over the next week. Estimates look poor. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Profit growth clocked in at 21% last qtr, sales rose just 7%It’s hard to belive it, but BIIB beat the street by 15 cents last qtr. Annual Profit Estimates have now dropped two straight qtrs. Quarterly estimates got slashed, and now qtrly growth doesn’t look good for the next 4 qtrs. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 What’s BIIB worth? Well its settled in here at 20x earnings, so that sounds fair. You could say 17x would be more realistic as the certainty factor is lower, which would be another 10% drop. Right now the growth opportunity lies in the Alzheimer’s drug, but even that is iffy right now. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 This used to be a great ten-year chart. I’m surprised profits could still grow 15% this year. Still, each year profits go up so maybe I’m being a little hard on the stock. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
24 of 27 |
Biogen had a very rough couple of days, but seems to have found a base here around $315-$320. Still, I don’t think it will climb higher in the near future unless it puts out some good Alzheimer’s news or makes a good acquisition. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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