| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Biogen (BIIB) |
$347 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
December 4, 2014 |
Jan 27 – Feb 2 |
Healthcare |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Today I will purchase Biogen (BIIB) in the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio as I think its new Alzheimer’s drug could be for real. Biogen’s been flying higher since it April 2011 when it announced positive late-stage clinical trial data for its multiple sclerosis drug BG-12, now known as Tecfidera, which got FDA approval in March 2013 and quickly attained blockbuster status. Now BIIB might have another blockbuster on its hands, but the stock will likely soar in anticipation of an approval (as it did before). Biogen did $10 billion in sales this year and the market for an effective Alzheimer’s treatment is in the tens of billions of dollars, so the stock could compound in value if the new drug is approved (it just went from $75 to $300 with Tecfidera). At around 20 times earnings, BIIB is a good price to pay for a Biotech stock anyway, and the Alzheimer’s drug is an added wild card that’s not figured into financial forecasts. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 BIIB has been basing this year, but when you see the ten-year chart below you can see the stock was soaring on anticipation of the profits that are currently being delivered. This stock broke out past $350 last week, a positive buy signal. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Profits soared 62% last qtr on a 37% increase in sales.
BIIB has been beating the street by a wide margin the past couple of qtrs. But Looking at the company’s history, it has missed once in a while, such as 2012 Q4 & 2014 Q1. Annual Profit Estimates have increased this year — good. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 BIIB is selling for 26x 2014 earnings right now. I’m assuming it keeps that same P/E, and if that happens the stock will be $423 next year, $506 in 2016 (if estimates stay the same, which they won’t). But the kicker is if the Alzheimer’s drug is for real then the stock could soar in anticipation of a huge jump in profits. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 The ten-year chart shows why I need to get in now. You can clearly see the breakout in April 2011 when BIIB went from $47 to $100. Now the stock’s based for a year and broke out again. Could another big move lie in store? |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
7 of 23 |
Biogen has another potential blockbuster drug and if approved BIIB’s stock coupld compound in value once again. Even if this drug doesn’t pan out, the stock isn’t overpriced and I still anticipate 20% growth the next two years. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
8 of 12 |
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