fbpx

China’s Dot-Com Craze

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

YY (YY)

$49

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

September 11, 2013

Nov 1 – Nov 15

Technology

Sharek’s Take
David SharekYY (YY) is a musical and video game social network in China. YY.com primarily derives its revenue from online games and YY Music, with each contributing around 40% of sales. YY also generates income from advertising and YY’s membership program, these each account for around 10% of revenue each. YY is a hot Chinese Internet stock, and these are the hottest investments right now. The stocks are soaring because sales and profits are jumping through the roof. I will add YY to the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio today.
lotOne-Year Chart
YY_2013_Q3One thing that’s not good is YY is up from $10.5 to $50 in less than a year. The stock came out at around 17 times 2012 profits, and now sells for 42 times profits. Still, I feel this P/E is low, as YY is doubling profits and sales each quarter. What’s nice is the estimated Long Term Growth Rate of 47%.
Earnings Table
YY_2013_Q3_EPSLast quarter, revenue rose 118% and profits jumped 169%.

YY blew past earnings estimates of $0.21 and posted profits of $0.35 last quarter. I think this put the stock on another level.
Now the company has unlimited potential, analysts can’t calculate how much YY can make until the beatdowns slow. This will lead to a P/E up into the atmosphere.

Annual Profit Estimates jumped by around 25 cents. That’s just in one-quarter. Does than mean estimates will rise by a dollar in a year? Will YY make $2.50 next year? If so, the P/E is now only 20 (we just don’t know it yet).

Quarterly estimates look splendid.
Fair Value
YY_2013_Q3_PHAt a current quote of $50, YY is still undervalued. And that only assumes a P/E of 50. This stock could get a P/E of 60. And who knows? YY could make $2.50 next year. Using “internet thinking” my ceiling on this stock is $150.  
Ten-Year Chart
YY_2013_Q3_10yrThis stock is really extended in the ten-year chart. But I feel as though we must buy these Chinese Internet stocks while we can. I think China is going into a dot-com phase, like we saw in 1998-1999 here in the states. If you don’t get in now, you might not have another chance.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

6 of 25

YY seems to be a brand new money making machine. The potential here is enormous, but there’s risk of a correction because the stock has just gone from $10 to $50. YY is red-hot and I don’t want the stock to leave us behind, but I wish to caution individual investors, who should only take a small position due to the high risk.

YY is ranked 6th of 25 stocks in the Growth Portfolio
Power Rankings. It will rank 5th in the 11 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio, replacing Catamaran because the stock has flatlined the last year.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

5 of 11

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Not a member? Sign up here for $25 a month.