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Barbarians at the Gate

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX)

$239

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

May 29, 2015

Jul 2 – Aug 4

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekValeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), formerly Biovail, develops and markets branded, generic, and over the counter drugs and medical devices. The company is based in Quebec, but is growing exponentially by acquiring other drug companies — 40 in 2014 alone — and relocating the patents to Ireland, where it has a factory, to achieve a lower tax status. Hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has likened VRX to Berkshire Hathaway, but Warren Buffett lets managers manage where VRX goes in and cuts costs, sometimes R&D, which turn off traditional drug companies like Allergan, which VRX tried & failed to acquire in 2014. It did get Bausch & Lomb in 2013 and profits have already doubled while profit margin has jumped from 21% to 50%. I will purchase Valeant today for the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio.
One-Year Chart
VRX_2015_Q2Stock’s gone on a big run already this year, still only sells for 21 times earnings while the Est LTG is a solid 27%. These charts were done when VRX was $239, the stock is down to $232 today as the market is selling off.
Earnings Table
VRX_2015_Q2_EPSProfits soared 34% on just 16% profit growth last qtr.
 
VRX beat the street by 2 cents last qtr.
 
Annual Profit Estimates have been soaring and that’s what’s helping push the stock higher. Big moves up in estimates.
 
Quarterly profit growth looks amazing, this will be one of our top holdings.
Fair Value
VRX_2015_Q2_PHBiovail wasn’t a good growth stock until profits started popping in 2011. Although VRX has just doubled, it’s still undervalued and I see the stock at $373 in 2016. Excellent upside.
Ten-Year Chart
VRX_2015_Q2_10yrStock looks very extended in the ten-year chart, but still the P/E is not that high. Just 21, with estimates rising.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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Valeant is growing like a weed as it takes advantage of tax loophole and acquires good companies. The stock is $232 now and I see it at $373 next year, giving it 61% upside within 18 months.
 
VRX will rank 3rd in the Growth Portfolio and
Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings but it won’t be my 3rd largest holding as this stock is extended and I have to be careful of a profit taking correction.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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