| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Priceline.com (PCLN) |
$1174 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
December 6, 2013 |
Feb 24 – Feb 28 |
Retail & Travel |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 I usually focus on the growth opportunity of Priceline. This quarter I want to switch gears and focus on the quality. PCLN has pretty much doubled in the last year, and the stock’s selling for 23 times 2014 earnings. I see the P/E going to 27 and the profit estimate increasing some during the year, so maybe the stock makes twenty-five to thirty-five percent next year. I’ve got a lot of stocks that can do this. What I like about PCLN is the quality. This is a big organization that people go to regularly to buy plane tickets and book hotels from. Booking.com is a now the behemoth of international travel sites. Gross bookings were up 42% internationally last quarter, vs a 17% increase domestically (38% overall). I trust PCLN to be a large holding, and will live with the current upside of 17% to its Fair Value. |
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| Just One-Year Chart | ||
 This is too big of a move higher in one year. And the angle has increased recently, that’s dangerous. This stock may base for a year. But last quarter profit growth was 40% so maybe not. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 2QtrsAgo’s sales 27% increase was really impressive. LastQtr’s 33% was even more impressive. I’ve owned the stock since 2006 and this company has gotten very large over the years, mainly because it bought Booking.com in 2005.
PCLN annihilated earnings estimates, beating by a whopping 109 cents. 40% profit growth for a large company, wow! Annual Profit Estimates continue to move higher. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 I’m leaving my Fair Value P/E at 27. There’s only 17% upside to 2014’s Fair Value but 41% upside to 2015’s. This is a high-quality growth stock you can buy-and-hold. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 This stock is on a parabolic move right now. I think a lot of stocks are. I predict a pullback in 2014, maybe a back-and-froth year when stocks build bases. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
4 of 26 |
Priceline is on a high right now, the stock’s not as undervalued as it usually is. Still, profit growth was 40% last quarter and sales growth was 33% so the company is clicking on all cylinders right now. This is a solid, safe growth stock you can buy-and-hold, but I’m not as enamored with PCLN as I usually am. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
4 of 13 |
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