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Digesting 2013 Gains

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

MasterCard (MA)

$75

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

August 18, 2014

Oct 29 – Nov 03

Financial

Sharek’s Take
David SharekMasterCard’s got a couple of minor issues. Profit growth has slowed a bit and at 25 times earnings the stocks a little overvalued considering profit growth has averaged 17% a qtr the last four qtrs. MA sold for 26x earnings back in 2013 Q4, and I say now what I said then: there’s little upside in these shares. Right now I think MA’s 12% overvalued, and looking out to next year the stock has a mere 5% upside to its 2015 Fair Value. This stock is even around the bottom of my Power Rankings. On a positive note this is a great company long-term as it can consistently kick out teens profit growth. Buy and hold, just buy lower.
One-Year Chart
MA_2014_Q3Look at this stock. Just sitting there. Still can’t digest the big gains made in 2013, when the stock gained 70%. P/E of 25 is in red because it’s too high. Estimates 2QtrsOut look good, but after that growth is expected to drop back down to 15%.
Earnings Table
MA_2014_Q3_EPSRevenue and profits were both up 14% last quarter.
 
MasterCard beat the street by a few cents but these estimates had come down a few cents the prior six months.
 
Annual Profit Estimates
are what they were last quarter.
 
Profit growth the next four qtrs should average what the company did the last four qtrs — mid-to-high teens.
Fair Value
MA_2014_Q3_PHWow, look at how the median P/E ballooned last year. Now the stock’s just waiting here as the earnings catch up. I may sell this stock I need the money for another stock.
Ten-Year Chart
MA_2014_Q3_10yrWhen you look at what MasterCard stock’s done during the last decade, it’s hard to say goodbye. Especially when you’re confident growth will continue for many years to come.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

23 of 25

MasterCard has been sitting here around $75 for six-months and could be here another year. I purchased MA for clients a while back, and it’s been solid, but if I need the money I’ll sell the stock and re-visit it later.
 
As it was last qtr, MA is ranked 23rd of 25 stocks in my Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. MA isn’t in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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