| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Herbalife (HLF) |
$66 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
March 7, 2012 |
May 2 |
Food & Necessities |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Herbalife’s stock is on a roll, but the figures don’t justify the stock’s continued rise. Estimates show profit growth of 6% to 11% coming in the next four quarters. At 18 times earnings the stock is fairly valued when you take those numbers into account.What HLF does have going for it is the company keeps beating the street. 10% profit growth was expected last quarter. The company delivered 30% growth. That’s good, but I still would like to see better estimates. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 In the one-year chart you can see profit growth has been great the last four quarters, but Estimates look poor. HLF has beaten the street by 13 cents in each of the past three quarters. If it does so again then the company will put out 29% growth next quarter. I think management is playing a game of underpromise and overdeliver. I would like to see a more appropriate outlook.18 times earnings is high for this stock. I originally purchased HLF when the P/E was 12. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Sales growth slowed from 30% 2QtrsAgo to 19% LastQtr. Profit growth also slowed from 47% to 30%. Growth is still good, just not great.Annual Profit Estimates did increase this quarter — good. 2012 profit growth is only expected to be 10% at this stage — bad. As I mentioned earlier, HLF has beaten estimates by 13 cents in each of the past three quarters. I have to think that trend will continue. Quarterly estimates don’t look so hot. Also note in the top half of the Earnings Table that quarterly estimates used to increase. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 This stock is getting close to its 2012 Fair Value. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 Herbalife’s been one of my best purchases in the last three years. I bought the stock at August 3, 2010 at $27. HLF’s got a chance to triple within two years of when I bought it.I like that HLF based for a while before its last breakout. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
7 of 19 |
I’m less bullish on this stock than I have been, but the other stocks I own I seem to like even less. Many stocks are selling near their Fair Value, and don’t have much upside. HLF is 7th in the 19 stock in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings and 6th in the 9 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. HLF has momentum but needs to keep beating the street. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
6 of 9 |
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