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Better Late Than Never

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Gilead Sciences (GILD)

$74

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

December 9, 2013

Feb 4 – Feb 7

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekToday I will purchase Gilead Sciences (GILD) for the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio. The FDA has approved GILD’s hepatitis C drug Sovaldi and the drug will be a blockbuster for the company with sales of perhaps $2 billion next year and $8 billion in 2018. Company profits are expected to go from $2 in 2013 to $5 in 2015. The only negative is the stock’s gone from $37 to $73 so far in 2013, but I think the GILD has a Fair Value of $151 by 2015.
One-Year Chart

GILD_2013_Q4Gilead sells for 23 times earnings, that’s not bad. I feel the stock should have a P/E in the 30s. Profit growth has been flat all year but is expected to pick up during the first quarter of 2014. I love the estimated LTG of 35% a year.

Earnings Table
GILD_2013_Q4_EPSSales growth was 15% last quarter, that’s not bad. Profit growth was only 4%, but it’s the future we are looking at here.GILD beat the street by 4 cents, and again this isn’t really news.

Annual Profit Estimates
show strong growth coming from 2013 through 2015. This is why I am buying the stock today.

Profit growth should accelerate to rapid-growth mode in 2014. This is a stock we need to own as 50% profit growth is hitting the wires.

Fair Value
GILD_2013_Q4_PHI feel this will push towards $100 next year — it’s already starting to go there now. I think GILD could go to $150 within two years, a double from here.
Ten-Year Chart
GILD_2013_Q4_10yrI used to own GILD stock. Got in on 11/16/05 at $27 and sold on 7/29/09 at $49. I don’t mind buying back now in the $70s, 2009-2013 is a long time away from the stock and we haven’t missed that much. Profits haven’t been good the last three years anyway.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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I’m very comfortable having Gilead Sciences as a large holding for my clients. Rapid profit growth should be here for at least two years, and at 23 times earnings the stock’s undervalued as well. There’s little economic sensitivity as this is a large healthcare stock.GILD enters the Growth Portfolio as a solid 5th in the 25 stock Power Rankings. It also ranks 5th in the 12 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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