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Miraculous Recovery

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Express Scripts (ESRX)

$53

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

March 7, 2012

April 26

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekExpress Scripts has made a strong move higher since dipping below $40 in October. But issues about the company’s business are yet to be resolved. The biggest problem is ESRX and Walgreen’s (WAG) couldn’t get together on a deal to allow ESRX customers to fill their scripts at Walgreen’s stores. This stand-off has hurt both companies. Still, ESRX stock has been climbing. For more on ESRX’s problems check out last quarter’s research report titled This Company Has Issues.
One-Year Chart

The one-year chart shows a nice uptrend in place. This is a good-looking chart pattern and suggests the stock will continue higher.
 
Profit growth of 18% the next two quarters looks good compared to the P/E of only 15, but estimates have been declining so I can’t put a lot of faith in them. When ESRX was doing well it rarely got a P/E over 20. When ESRX hit $60 last year the P/E was 19.

Earnings Table
Profit growth was 15% last quarter on a 7% rise in sales. ESRX typically makes good profits on slight increases in sales because it moves people into higher profit margin generics.
 
ESRX missed by 3 cents and has been lowering estimates then missing for the past year.
 
Annual Profit Estimates continue to erode. At least this time the rate of decline wasn’t so bad.
 
Quarterly estimates show solid teens growth ahead but these estimates have been declining for three straight quarters. I’m surprised this stock is trending higher.
Fair Value
I’ll keep my Fair Value P/E at 17. I think the stock has good upside for long-term investors.
Ten-Year Chart
I purchased ESRX for clients at $7 on 10/1/01 at $7. I’m unlikely to give up now. Even though 2012 looks like a tough year, profit growth is expected to be a robust 19% this year.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

14 of 19

Express Scripts is on a nice move higher but the numbers don’t look so hot.
 
ESRX ranks 14th in the 19 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. This is not a candidate for the Aggressive Growth Portfolio.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

riginally o

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