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The Sweet Spot

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH)

$72

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

December 27, 2010

Feb 7

Technology

Sharek’s Take
David SharekCognizant Technology Solutions’ is hitting its sweet spot with sales and profits growing more than 40%. IT outsourcing is back, and companies are spending in this area. Even I am considering having some web-based tasks done by outsourcers. Companies (including mine) will no-doubt provide more funds to the technology budget in 2011. Some of that money will come CTSH’s way.
 
I owned CTSH from January 2004 through December 2008, and repurchased the stock in August 2010. This company does well as the economy prospers. It also makes more profits when the the Rupee is low (as this makes jobs cheaper). Infosys Technologies (INFY), another big Indian IT outsourcer, fell 3% after reporting earnings last quarter because it warned a rising Rupee could hurt the industry.
One-Year Chart
The things I like best about this one-year chart is profits were up 47% last quarter and Estimates show 38% and 29% growth coming. Profits have been up every year — so you can buy-and-hold this stock. The P/E of 27 is higher than the estimates Long Term Growth Rate because CTSH is in a sweet spot in its business cycle.
Earnings Table
Cognizant had profit’s up 47% last quarter on a 43% rise in revenue. The company has a nice recurring revenue stream that keeps profits churning upward most every quarter. This is not a tech stock that depends on selling a new product.
 
CTSH beat by 6 cents last quarter — after upping by 6 cents a quarter earlier. I like this trend of quarterly estimates rising, it gives the stock certainty.
 
Annual estimates continue to climb. The pase of annual increases has been steady all year.  
 
Quarterly estimates show some weakness ahead three and four quarters from now. I looked into revenue growth during those quarters and estimates show 26% and 22% growth expected. I think CTSH will be able to continue 25% plus profit growth later in 2011.
Fair Value
CTSH has the ability to be worth 30 times earnings. Since we are in the sweet spot of the outsourcing market, growth could slow later in the year, so 35 times earnings might be too much. At $72, CTSH is selling close to its 2011 Fair Value of $80. Upside is 33% for investors willing to hold the shares to 2012.
Ten-Year Chart
CTSH, a former top holding of mine, fell from grace in 2008 with the financial collapse. Financials make up a big part of Cognizant’s revenue, and less bank business was expected to hamper growth. When I sold CTSH previously, estimates were for 12% growth ahead. Clearly business picked right back up and the stock followed through.
 
CTSH is one of the best stocks during the past ten years, with profit growth of 40% per-year fueling 38% per-year stock growth.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

9 of 18

Cognizant Technology Solutions is the 9th best stock in the 18 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings and 8th best stock is the 10 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.
 
Although this stock does not have huge upside to fair value, revenue growth of 43% last quarter and 42% the quarter earlier prove CTSH is in the sweet spot of the technology spending surge that should continue into 2011.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

8 of 10

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