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2016 Could Be Huge

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Celgene (CELG)

$111

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

June 6, 2015

Jul 22 – Jul 27

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekCelgene’s 2016’s profit growth looks great. According to Thomson Financial, analysts forecast qtrly profit growth of 41%, 41%, 40% and 40% in 2016. But there is a discrepancy. These EPS figures add up to $6.68. The 2016 yearly estimate is $6.18, which is “just” 30% growth. Either way 2016 should be a strong year. Last qtr management forecasted $7.50 in profits by 2017 and $12.50 in profits by 2020. A 25 P/E on both would net a stock price of $188 in 2017 and $313 in 2020. Celgene has a solid pipeline to fuel future growth, plus the added stability of being a drug company with consistent profit growth. The P/E of 23 is great considering profit growth is expected to be at least 26% a qtr the next seven qtrs. CELG is my #2 ranked stock in my Power Rankings.
One-Year Chart
CELG_2015_Q2Stock hasn’t done anything in 2015. Sometimes CELG goes sideways for many months, often with no reason as to why. Everything here looks good. Solid.
Earnings Table
CELG_2015_Q2_EPSCelgene has 20% revenue growth last qtr and 27% sales growth. The company buys back shares which helps EPS.
 
The company beat by a penny, as usual. Nothing here.
 
Annual Profit Estimates
have been on a slight decline for a few qtrs now.
 
Quarterly profit growth is expected to be in the high 20% range this year, then accelerate to 40% in 2016.
Fair Value
CELG_2015_Q2_PHHere is where you can see 2016 profit growth is expected to be 30% ($6.18 vs. $4.75). 40% or 30%? Still, solid. I feel CELG is worth 30x earnings and could be 67% higher next year.
Ten-Year Chart
CELG_2015_Q2_10yrCelgene’s stock lagged its profit growth after the market crash of 2008 as investors flooded into stocks that could bounce back better on an economic recovery.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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Celgene is the perfect stock for my portfolios right now. Biotechs are hot again, and CELG is delivering consistent +26% profit growth. The P/E of 23 makes the stock undervalued, and we could see another solid move higher as 2016’s profits come into focus.
 
CELG is ranked 2nd in the Growth Portfolio and the Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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