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Still a Bright Future Ahead

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Celgene (CELG)

$151

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

November 6, 2013

Jan 30

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekCelgene (CELG) has gone from $69 to $151 since I purchased the stock on 7/31/2012. But even after the 120% move, the stock still has a bright future ahead. Celgene has a vast portfolio of drugs that are either doing well or are coming to market in the future. These drugs will help boost profits years from now. It’s possible Celgene could earn $10 in 2015. With that kind of cheddar coming in, this stock could (should) be $200 to $250 a share by then.
One-Year Chart

CELG_2013_Q4I sold around half of my CELG earlier this year around $120 a share. At the time I felt the shares were fully valued (the stock had a 21 P/E).. Now at $150, I feel CELG is a bit undervalued with a 21 P/E. Before I felt the stock would come back down until the P/E got into the high-teens. Now I see the market has new-found appreciation for CELG.

Earnings Table
CELG_2013_Q4_EPSProfits jumped 21% on only a 9% increase in sales.Celgene beat by 3 cents a share, the company beat by 9 cents 2QtrsAgo so this 3 cent beat wasn’t so great.Annual Profit Estimates stayed around the same. 2015’s estimate is the one I’m keeping an eye on. Profits are expected to climb 29% that year. Analysts expect only 20% growth next year. If CELG bases for a bit (or dips) next year that would be a good opportunity to accumulate shares.

Quarterly estimates are in the high-teens. Celgene could beat these and hit 20% profit growth.
Fair Value
CELG_2013_Q4_FVThis stock has a little upside to Fair Value for 2014. 2015 upside is a robust 42%.
Ten-Year Chart
CELG_2013_Q4_10yrCELG wasn’t appreciated a few years ago. It had a P/E in the low-teens even though the company was expected to grow 20% a year. Investors were looking to invest in economically sensitive stocks that rise fast in an expanding economy. Now the stock seems a little high in this chart.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

12 of 24

Celgene is a wonderful stock to own if you don’t mind waiting a couple years to get a good return. The stock has around 10% upside in 2014, but more than 40% upside looking out to 2015.

Celgene is ranked 12th of 24 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. I sold CELG from the
Aggressive Growth Portfolioearlier in the year and will buy if back here if the stock dips or bases for a while.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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