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Take Profits, Sell Half

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Celgene (CELG)

$122

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

May 6, 2013

Apr 25

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekWhen I originally purchased Celgene on July 31st of last year, the stock was $69 and had a P/E of only 14. At the time the stock had just ended a correction and I thought it had turned back up. Fast forward to today and we see the stock did in fact turn up, and the subsequent move higher has been admirable. But now with the stock in the $120s, I feel its time to take some money off the table. CELG’s P/E has gone from 14 to 21, and profit growth might slow during the next couple of quarters. I feel investors should take profits in this stock, and sell half their position.
One-Year Chart

CELG_2013_Q2Corrections are healthy for a stock, and CELG hasn’t had one this year. Notice the P/E is 21 and is now black, not green, signifying the stock’s not undervalued anymore. Also, profit growth is expected to slow from 27% last quarter to 17% next quarter and then only 12% two quarters from now.

Earnings Table
CELG_2013_Q2_EPSProfit growth was a solid 27% last quarter on a 15% increase in sales.
 
CELG only beat by two cents last quarter. If it does that this quarter profit growth will fall from 27% to 19%.
 
Annual Profit Estimates continue to increase, and that keeps the stock timely.
 
Quarterly estimates show profit growth is set to fall to 12% – 13% in the near future. I feel CELG will be able to grow in the high-teens but that might impact the stock’s momentum. With CELG near an all time high, this is a good time to take profits.
Fair Value
CELG_2013_Q2_FVI’ve felt CELG was worth 20 times earnings ever since I bought the stock last year. Now the P/E is 21 and CELG is fully valued.
Ten-Year Chart
CELG_2013_Q2_10yrWow, this ten-year chart shows a climactic move. I think the move up has been so strong and fast the stock could correct or at least rest for a while. The good thing is long bases like the one made during 2009-2012 are often followed by strong moves higher where the stock catches up.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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Although momentum in Celgene is strong, I see warning signs that tell me this is a good time to take profits by selling half your position. Let the other half ride, as this is a solid long-term holding.
 
I’m moving CELG down in my Power Rankings. In the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings it drops from 3rd to 7th and in the
Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings it drops from 4th to 7th.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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