| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD) |
$63 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
November 16, 2011 |
Feb 6 |
Retail & Travel |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Buffalo Wild Wings might not have the power to break out and move higher until a year from now. This year profits were helped by lower wing prices. Wings were $1.16 per pound last quarter, 18% lower than the $1.42 the company paid in the year ago period. Higher food costs are happening now, and BWLD will have to get good same-store-sales growth to help profits. Right now its getting that growth as same store sales should clock in at 8% during the fourth quarter.The company should increase its store count 12% next year, and if same-store sales continue to rise more than 5% we should see 20% profit growth if wing prices don’t fly the coop. The company should have 1000 stores by 2013 and will look to grow to 1500 in the US and Canada with hundreds more overseas. This is a great long-term investment, it’s just selling at Fair Value right now. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 BWLD is basing and with 12% profit growth on the horizon, the P/E might not get to 25 until late 2012. I love the fact profits have grown every year, and the 30% growth just put out is solid, but food prices are rising and that might hold back profits next year. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Profits jumped 30% last quarter and sales rose 31%, above expectations.BWLD beat by a couple cents, and had upped estimates before that. Annual Profit Estimates stayed consistent with 22% profit growth expected next year. The company is running promotions to get more sales to offset the higher food costs. Quarterly estimates are weak in the beginning of 2012 because 60% of new Company store openings will occur in the 2nd half of the year. Also, food costs are rising. The 4th quarter of 2012 should be strong (this quarter is not shown). Quarterly estimates just declined a bit. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 For now BWLD is worth 20 times earnings, if the company can beat the lowered quarterly estimates I’ll put the Fair Value P/E back to 25. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 This is a beautiful ten-year chart. I’ve always liked Buffalo Wild Wings, I even kept the IPO prospectus from 2003 (I may have gotten rid of it since as Manhattan office space is tight). |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
14 of 20 |
Buffalo Wild Wings is a wonderful stock but higher wing prices might eat into profits a bit next year. New store openings should bring profit growth up in the second half of the year. BWLD is ranked 14th in the 20 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. The stock might not move until a year from now. This stock is not in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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