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European Bond Fund Redemptions

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Franklin Resources (BEN)

$54

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

May 16, 2014

Jul 28

Financial

Sharek’s Take
David SharekFranklin Resources (BEN) is suffering from bond fund redemptions as Europeans move their money from safe bond funds to more aggressive equity funds. Franklin is one of the top bond firms in the world, and its Franklin U.S. Government Securities fund was the largest in the world from March 1985 to June 1989 (source: Investors.com). BEN did get inflows into its U.S stock funds last qtr, but the overall effect caused profits to fall 1%. With profit growth expected to average 10% a qtr the next four qtrs, BEN isn’t timely and is fairly valued here at 15 times earnings. I’ll sell BEN from the Growth Portfolio today.
One-Year Chart
BEN_2014_Q2BEN’s quarterly profit growth doesn’t look great, and Estimates are just OK. The P/E is 15 which I think is about right considering the lackluster profit growth. The Est. LTG is 16% and BEN also pays a dividend which varies from year-to-year, so BEN could give a 17% to 18% annual total return.
Earnings Table
BEN_2014_Q2_EPSProfits fell 1% last quarter as sales increased only 4%. Sales grew 11% jump 2QtrsAgo.
 
The company missed estimates by a penny, the third miss in the last four quarters.
 
As mentioned earlier, the quarterly profit growth picture doesn’t look great. These numbers also just declined a tad.
Fair Value
BEN_2014_Q2_PHBAN’s P/E has been rather low the last four years. I don’t see it rising with 10% profit growth. This stock is around Fair Value right now, the 2015 upside is an underwhelming 14%.
Ten-Year Chart
BEN_2014_Q2_10yrI’m surprised this stock’s grown at only 12% a year during the last decade. That seems low…oh, but we had the bear market. This is a great stock for conservative investors to buy and hold. Unfortunately I’m running a growth stock portfolio.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

N/A

Franklin Resources is a core holding for conservative investors. But I am a growth stock money manager looking for stocks that grow profits 20% a year. Profit growth has slowed, BEN is now only giving half that rate of growth, and I feel this stock will hold the portfolio back. I will sell BEN from the Growth Portfolio today.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

N/A

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