| Stock (Symbol) | Stock Price | |
Ancestory.com (ACOM) |
$37 |
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| Data is as of | Expected to Report | Sector |
June 9, 2011 |
Jul 25 |
Technology |
| Sharek’s Take | ||
 Ancestory.com jumped from $32 to $46 (+44%) after reporting earnings last quarter. Subscribers grew 33% year-over-year. This stock is heavily shorted, as investors feel people will cancel subscriptions. So far ACOM has attracted a following of family historians who don’t mind paying the 420 a month or $155 per year.The company announced a $125 million stock repurchase plan. The market cap is $1.7 billion, so that’s 7% of shares. The company doesn’t actually have to spend the $125 million just because they announce it, and there can be other offerings of stock that affect the fload. But still this is good news. There’sa lot of money being made, and management is spending it on buying back stock while also building its library of records. |
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| One-Year Chart | ||
 The one-year chart shows the stock popped after earnings, then came down a bit as the market was in a strong correction. Some of the pop in the stock after earnings might have been attributed to short-covering.
Estimates really look good, and the P/E of 32 is reasonable. This has been a good stock. |
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| Earnings Table | ||
 Sales grew 41% compared to 38% 2QtrsAgo. Profits jumped 125% but that was because of easy comparisons a year ago.
ACOM beat by 3 cents, which was good because the company lowered by 5 cents a quarter earlier. I’m not impressed when you lower and beat. Annual Profit Estimates increased. Now we are looking at 51% profit growth this year, 30% next year and 33% the year after. Quarterly estimates look amazing — with 72% profit growth estimates 4QtrsOut. Wow! These numbers have been increaseing too. |
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| Fair Value | ||
 ACOM’s Fair Value P/E is now 40. I had taken this down from 40 to 35 last quarter because the company didn’t increase estimates. There’s good upside here, and the stock is timely again. |
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| Ten-Year Chart | ||
 Ancestory.com went public in November 2009. Annual profit growth (bottom) has been very strong each year. The stock has also been a consistent riser. The pullback has given investors a chance to gert in. |
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| Power Ranking | Bottom Line | |
Growth Portfolio
12 of 19 |
ACOM is ranked 14th of 21 stocks in the Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. The stock is timely and has good upside and the subscription model is working. I sold this stock from the Aggressive Growth Portfolio before it popped after earnings. I like the otehr stocks in the portfolio better. |
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Aggressive Growth Portfolio
N/A |
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