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Tesla Set to Deliver its First Model 3s This Month

Stock (Symbol)

Tesla (TSLA)

Stock Price

$362

Sector
Technology
Data is as of
July 1, 2017
Expected to Report
Aug 1
Company Description
Tesla Motors, Inc. is a United States-based company, which designs, develops, manufactures and sells electric vehicles, electric vehicle powertrain components and stationary energy storage systems. TSLA sells and produces the Model S and Model X electric cars, Supercharger charging stations and Powerwall, a home battery. Source: Thomson Financial
Sharek’s Take
David SharekTesla (TSLA) is set to begin deliveries of its Model 3 sedan later this month. At a starting price of $35,000 this car will put Tesla into mainstream America, but will deliver lower profit margins than the company’s other brands. But long-term, there could be issues with Tesla’s batteries. For a while now I’ve heard there were problems with Tesla batteries. First from a friend of mine who is in the battery business, and recently from Louis Navellier, who lives close by and recommends we avoid the stock (it has negative earnings growth, Navellier feeds of profit growth). And this month Tesla said it didn’t hit sales targets due to a “severe” shortfall in battery packs. But production wise, Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk believes the company will be producing 500,000 cars per year by the end of 2018. Tesla delivered 3000 vehicles in 2012, 22,000 in 2013, 35,000 in 2014, 50,000 cars in 2015, and 84,000 last year. Here’s Tesla’s models:

  • Tesla’s flagship is the Tesla S, which went from prototype to production in 2012 and within three years owned one-qtr of the U.S. Large Luxury Vehicle market.
  • In 2015 the company rolled out the Tesla Model X, an all-wheel drive SUV with falcon wing doors, seating for 7, and is ridiculously fast.
  • The Model 3 is Tesla’s inexpensive model.
  • The next venture will be the Tesla Y compact SUV, followed by a minibus for public transportation.

The battery issue set TSLA shares back this month — shares have fallen 15% from $362 to $316  (-15%). Also, Volvo plans to go all-electric in the near future (though it has a lot of catching up to do). But on the bright side within the next few years 20%-25% of Americans could be driving Tesla cars with Solar City roof panels charging the cars at night and providing power to the home. Billionaire fund manager Ron Baron feels investors could make 30 to 50 times their money in 15 years. What’s my take? We don’t have enough data as of yet on Tesla’s battery situation, so I will monitor it closely. Also, real profits might not happen until years from now. But the opportunity here is vast, and I feel TSLA is one of the top-10 growth stocks in the market.

One Year Chart
Note these charts were done 10 days ago when the chart looked much better. Last qtr the company delivered an 68% sales growth — which is amazing. But the company lost money. Profit estimates got slashed this qtr. 2017’s estimate fell from -$1.42 to -$5.78. Losses are expected in each of the next 4 qtrs as well (these all dropped hard as well). There’s no P/E but the Est. LTG is 35% is great but I think TSLA can grow faster.
Fair Value
I don’t have a Fair Value on TSLA as the company isn’t making a profit so I can’t put a P/E multiple on a negative number.
Bottom Line
Tesla is one of the greatest investment opportunities of our lifetime, but carries risks including battery issues, competition and now I’m hearing electric companies are becoming reluctant to buy energy from customers with SolarCity panels on their roof. TSLA ranks 4th in the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. I feel this is a core holding for growth stock investors, but don’t put all your eggs in this basket just in case.
Power Rankings
Growth Stock Portfolio

4 of 30

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

4 of 15

Conservative Stock Portfolio

N/A

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