SpaceX (SPCX) Revenue Expected to Fly High with AI (Not Space) Leading the Way

Stock (Symbol)

SpaceX (SPCX)

Stock Price

$138

Sector

Data is as of

Expected to Report

Company Description

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. designs, manufactures, launches, and operates products and services built on technologies, including rockets and spacecraft.

The Company’s segments include Space, Connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI). Its Space segment designs, manufactures, and launches reusable rockets to provide access to space.

Its Connectivity segment operates broadband data and communications network powered by approximately 9,600 Starlink broadband and mobile satellites in Low-Earth orbit, delivering connectivity to consumer, enterprises, and government customers over 164 countries, territories, and other markets.

In its AI segment, it operates a vertically integrated AI platform spanning its truth-seeking frontier model Grok, AI solutions for consumer and enterprise customers, X-its real-time information, entertainment, and free speech platform and AI computational infrastructure. Source: Refinitiv

Sharek’s Take

The big story here is sales and profits are expected to ramp up in the coming years. But Elon Musk has been known to lower estimates at Tesla, so take these figures with a grain of salt:

• Year: Profit, Revenue
• 2025: $0.05, $19 billion (actual results)
• 2026: -$0.06, $42 billion (estimates)
• 2027: $1.75, $88 billion
• 2028: $4.97, $147 billion
• 2029: $6.69, $273 billion
• 2030: $10.23, $434 billion
• Note: SpaceX internal projections are for $1 trillion in revenue in 2030.

Here are the three SpaceX operating segments, with last qtr’s revenue stats:

1. Connectivity (Starlink): 55% of total revenue, revenue up 66% year-over-year.
   • Starlink is SpaceX’s satellite internet service, using 9600 satellites in low Earth orbit to provide fast internet, especially in places with poor internet access.
   • Starshield is a version of Starlink built for government and defense customers, offering secure communications and other national security services.
   • Connectivity is the largest source of revenue for SPCX and is the only profitable segment.
   • Last qtr, Consumer revenue was up 44% year-over-year while Enterprise & Government revenue was up 108% year-over-year.
2. AI (X, xAI & Grok): 33% of total revenue, revenue up 247% year-over-year.
   • X social platform (formerly Twitter).
   • xAI is the Artificial Intelligence company.
   • Grok is an AI assistant and chatbot built by xAI.
   • X and Grok had 1.3 billion accounts active as of December 31, 2025.
   • Colossus is an AI supercomputer built in Memphis, TN.
   • Colossus 2 is an even bigger Ai supercomputer operating and expanding a few miles away in Southaven, MS.
   • Cursor: today, SpaceX acquired Anysphere, the developer of Cursor, an AI computer programmer.
   • The segment generates revenue but operates at a substantial loss, driven by heavy spending on computing infrastructure.
   • Last qtr, revenue was driven by an increase in AI solutions and infrastructure revenues from new Cloud Service Agreements.
3. Space (SpaceX Launch Services): 12% of total revenue, revenue up 29% year-over-year. 
   • SpaceX Launch Services launches rockets, satellites, spacecraft, and other payloads into space. Completed 650 orbital space launches as of March 2026. SpaceX handles about 85% of all the world’s rocket launches.
   • Falcon 9: SpaceX’s main reusable rocket, used for most launches.
   • Falcon Heavy: A partially-reusable heavy-lift rocket built from three Falcon 9 cores, used for larger payloads.
   • Starship: A fully reusable next-generation rocket still in development, intended for deep-space missions.
   • Dragon: A spacecraft that carries astronauts and cargo to and from the International Space Station.
   • Space generates revenue primarily from government customers, including the US Department of Defense and NASA.
   • The segment is unprofitable, driven by Starship development costs.
   • Last qtr, revenue was driven by a higher number of large customer launches.

Turning to the stock, SPCX was expensive after its IPO, but has come down a lot from its highs. There is no Est. LTG or P/E yet, and the company is not profitable. The most impressive thing about SpaceX is the payback period on new capital deployments for compute is less than one year. That’s $1 going in and $1 in cash flow coming back within a year. The payback period for a business is often 5 to 10 years. SpaceX has $100 billion in cash. Musk thinks they will have 15 to 20 gigawats at the power and cooling level online by the end of 2027. That’s power plant level. And SpaceX will receive a very significant percent of NVIDIA’s GPUs next year. SPCX will be added to the Growth Portfolio and Focus List today.

One Year Chart

SPCX stock upended at $150, jumped above $200 two days later, went into a downturn, then got some momentum after earnings were announced. 

There is no Est. LTG nor profits. There’s no P/E as the company is losing money.

Earnings Table

Last quarter, revenue growth accelerated across every segment. Net losses were cut in half.

• Starlink had a standout qtr, with 1.7 million new subscribers. with average revenue per user of $66 per month.
• Musk stated at some point, Starlink will deliver a majority of the world’s internet, at least in countries its allowed to operate in.
• Grok 5 is expected to be out by the end of the year, and will incorporate all the SpaceX data. Musk thinks its efficiency of compute is the highest.
• Falcon delivers 2500 tons into orbit a year.
• Going forward SpaceX will build exclusively on NVIDIA because they think Vera Rubin architecture is the best AI computer.
• AI revenues were up 247% year-over-year. This segment went from being smaller than the Space segment a year ago to 2.5x larger.

Annual Profit Estimates increased in a big way this qtr.

Qtrly Profit Estimates are for profits next quarter. Wow, that was quick! There is no year-over-year revenue estimate for next qtr. Analysts see revenue of $12.5 billion next qtr, up from $7.8 billion sequentially .

Fair Value

Since this company isn’t making money yet, I’m not going to value it on a P/E (price to earnings) basis. My SPCX Fair Value is 35x annual revenue (price to revenue).

Current:
42 x $44 billion revenue est. = $1.8 trillion market cap
$1.8 trillion / 13.2 billion shares = $138

2026 Fair Value:
35 x $44 billion revenue est. = $1.5 trillion market cap
$1.5 trillion / 13.2 billion shares = $117
Upside/Downside: -16%

2028 Fair Value:
35 x $102 billion revenue est. = $3.6 trillion market cap
$3.6 trillion / 13.2 billion shares = $270
Upside/Downside: +95%

Bottom Line

Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) had a massive post-IPO run, reaching above $225 before falling sharply.

SpaceX’s momentum as a business is extraordinary. With revenue estimated to climb ten-fold in four years, this stock might also compound in value during that time. Also, this is more a story on AI expansion (and being the most efficient at it) than a story about space. Risks include falling short of these lofty expectations and new shares of stock flooding the market.

SPCX will be added to Growth Portfolio and Focus List and rank 10th in each Power Rankings.

Power Rankings

10 of 32

Focus List

10 of 15

Conservative Stock Portfolio

N/A