Dissing Priceline

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Priceline.com (PCLN)

$634

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

November 12, 2012

Feb 25

Retail & Travel

Sharek’s Take
David Sharek

Priceline is consistently dissed. The stock’s one of this decade’s best yet investors aren’t giving the stock the P/E it deserves. Now profits are growing around 25% yet the stock has only a 17 P/E. But that’s been the case with PCLN all decade — the stock’s always undervalued.
 
A few months ago management guided down estimates a bit, stating weakness in Europe. Southern European has been for several quarters, it said, but when PCLN reported earnings last qaurter Europe was surprisingly strong. The stock jumped 10% on the good news.

One-Year Chart
PCLN made a big run earlier in the year. Then the company got cautious about European growth and the stock corrected. But last quarter was a winner and the stock deserves to go back to its highs. PCLN’s P/E is 17 even though profits grew 25% LastQtr. A P/E of 25 would send this stock up 50%.
Earnings Table
Sales grew 17% last quarter and profit growth was 25%.
 
PCLN beat the street by 62 cents but this estimate fell by $1.25 a quarter earlier. Momentum was lost last quarter, now PCLN has gained it back.
 
Annual Profit Estimates increased, but not by a lot. 
 
It looks like profits will grow an average of 21% the next four quarters. I think PCLN will beat the street and perhaps hit 25% to 30% profit growth next year.
Fair Value
PCLN is tremendodusly undervalued. The stock deserves a 27 P/E.
Ten-Year Chart
Look how remarkable profit growth has been this decade. Yes, the stock’s up but not enough. Yearly EPS Growth is 63% yet the Yearly Stock Growth is 50%. Look for the stock to do some catching up in 2013.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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Priceline.com doesn’t get the credit it deserves. But even if the stock just get’s a 21 P/E next year (it’s selling for 21 times 2012 earnings now) the stock’s set to rise 23%. I think PCLN will grow around 25% and should get a 27 P/E. This is a large company that investors can feel comfortable with as a large holding. 
 
PCLN is ranked 3rd in the 17 stock Growth Portfolio and 9 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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