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Gonna Try for $1000

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Priceline.com (PCLN)

$520

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

April 17, 2011

May 9

Retail & Travel

Sharek’s Take
David Sharek

Priceline is cooking on all burners. Profit growth shot up to 71% last quarter, after being in the 50s for the three straight quarters. Profit growth is accelerating as travel prospers. I think the accelerating growth could push PCLN’s P/E higher.
 
PCLN owns the European travel site booking.com and that may be the true reason for the company’s success.
PCLN bought booking in 2005 and booking.com’s numbers are better than Priceline.com’s — especially profits which are fatter overseas due to less competition.
One-Year Chart
Priceline has been on a tear in the last year, and the latest quarter’s profit growth of 71% is the best in a year. Estimates show 44% and 40% ahead and the company has been beating the street estimates to a pulp.
 
I think PCLN’s P/E could rise — from the current 27 to 40 otr 45. We are in a time where tech companies are growing rapidly yet the P/E’s are cheap.
Earnings Table
Profits grew 71% on a 35% increase in revenue. Profit growth has averaged 59% the last four quarters, and there’s not thinking that can’t continue.
 
PCLN continues to crush estimates. Last quarter’s figures had even jumped twice earlier. OMG, this is so impressive.
 
Annual Profit Estimates increased, but not as much as some of the other stocks in the portfolio. Over the last four quarters 2012’s number has gone from $15.39 to $23.89 (+55%). 
 
Quarterly estimates show profit growth in the 40s — last quarter these were in the 30s — PLUS these numbers could (should) get beat so PCLN has the ability to grow faster than 50% a quarter.
Fair Value
I’m increasing my Fair Value P/E from 27 to 42. The P/E might not actually get to $42 but I do think the $1000 is realistic beacause estimates will likely increase and the stock might only need a P/E of 35 to get there. 

 

Ten-Year Chart
Wow, what a rise. What a stock. Profits grew 58% last year and now this year’s “estimate” is 40%.
 
Not shown here is PCLN was a 2000 dot-com stock that soared to $974 in April 1999. The company didn’t make profits till 2001, and profits fell in 2002. Then it was off to the races.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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The big news is PCLN is gonna push for $1000, surprising to many because the stock’s already gone from $200 to $500 during the past year. 
 
PCLN is now ranked #2 in 20 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings and #2 the In the Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings. A red hot Travelzoo (TZOO) won’t let go of #1. 
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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