Tremendously Undervalued

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Express Scripts (ESRX)

$54

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

December 9, 2012

Feb 18

Healthcare

Sharek’s Take
David SharekExpress Scripts (ESRX) management doesn’t think the company can grow 28% in 2013 as analysts expected, and it said so. Investors took ESRX stock down on the news. But now the stock is “tremendously undervalued”, said the company’s CFO. This great company now has huse upside once again.
 
ESRX merged with Medco this year, and some of the synergies gained from the merger (i.e., having one call center instead of two) are being realized in 2012 instead of 2013. So that means more profits this year and harder comparisons next year. As a side note, the two IT systems should be one by 2014, that’s when the synergies will be fully realized.
One-Year Chart

ESRX’s P/E is only 13 and its estimated Long Term Growth Rate. is 18%. The P/E should be around 18. Quarterly profit growth has been great for three straight quarters. This looks to continue through 2013. Don’t “expect” 28% growth, but it could happen.

Earnings Table
ESRX profits rose 25% last quarter as sales increased 133% because of the merger.
 
The company beat by 3 cents last quarter and usually comes close to hitting estimates.
 
Annaul Profit Estimates fell for 2013 and 2014 because of the “we won’t hit 28% growth” comments.
 
Quarterly estimates look stout for the next three quarters. 28% growth looks to be coming this way.
Fair Value
I’m taking my Fair Value down from 22 to 19, and the stock is still tremendously undervalued
Ten-Year Chart
This has been one of my best investments. Notice the stock has made dips in the past only to recover to new highs. This is a conservative stock investment, this is a top holding for any portfolio.
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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ESRX is one ofthe best stocks to own going into 2013. The company has been performing admirably for more than a decade and its 13 P/E gives the stock not only huge upside but limited downside as well.
 
ESRX ranks 7th in the 17 stock Growth Portfolio Power Rankings and 6th in the 8 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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