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IT Outsourcing Will Be Hot in 2011

Stock (Symbol) Stock Price

Camelot Information Systems (CIS)

$26

Data is as of Expected to Report Sector

January 7, 2011

Feb 20

Technology

Sharek’s Take
David SharekI will purchase Camelot Information Systems (CIS) in the Growth Portfolio today and replace Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH) with CIS in the Aggressive Growth Portfolio. I’ve followed this stock since it went public last summer, because IT outsourcers are often excellent stocks. I like CIS better than CTSH because this is a young stock that I hope will someday grow like CTSH did during the last decade.
 
CIS is an IT outsourcer in China. Camelot specializes in implementing SAP software for manufacturers and building platforms for financial firms such as banks. One third of this company’s revenue comes from IBM. IT outsourcing is very timely right now as 2011 budgets call for higher IT spending — that money’s got to go somewhere.
One-Year Chart
CIS’s one-year chart shows a double since the stock went public last summer. Profits have grown rapidly and that looks to continue. CIS is breaking out to new highs today — it’s up $2 to $26 right now.
Earnings Table
Profit growth was 53% last quarter. Sales have risen 46%, 72%, 90% and 57% the past four quarters. That’s great because I want sales to climb around 45% each quarter for the stock to deserve the P/E I estimated in the Fair Value section below.
 
CIS has beaten the street in the only two opportunities it’s had. I think IT outsourcers can get on a roll and beat estimates every quarter as much of the work is long-term contracts with recurring revenue each month.
 
Annual Profit Estimates just increased last quarter but I don’t have a larger history to go back on due to CIS’s limited history as a public company. 2012′s estimate should increase, there’s only one analyst giving this estimate.
 
Estimates for the next three quarters look great but the 4QtrsOutEst will have to increase.
I think it will as this figure was last reviewed by 2 of the 4 analysts’ way back in November.
Fair Value
I had a tough time figuring what CIS’s P/E should be. Maybe 25 because that’s the estimated Long Term Growth Rate? Well the stock’s got a 30 P/E and it’s going up on high volume right now. I went with a P/E of 45 as CIS’s Fair Value because that’s what CTSH used to be worth when it was growing rapidly.
Ten-Year Chart
Camelot just went public last July, so there’s not much in the ten-year chart. There is data before CIS was publicly traded, here are the annual profits (in earnings per share or EPS) since 2005:
2005 0.08
2006 0.12
2007 0.16
2008 0.20
2009 0.35
2010 0.74e
Power Ranking Bottom Line
Growth Portfolio

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Camelot Information Systems is very timely right now. 2011 should bring more new IT outsourcing projects as companies are spending to grow. This stock has huge upside over the long-term but the stock is risky because it’s a new issue and it’s from China.
 
In my Power Rankings, CIS is ranked 8th in the 20 stock Growth Portfolio.
Other stocks like Deckers (DECK) and Herbalife (HLF) are more safe & solid.
 
CIS is ranked 7th in the 10 stock Aggressive Growth Portfolio, replacing Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH). CTSH has gone from$59 to $75 (+27%) since I bought the stock in both portfolios on 8/12/10. Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) ranks ahead of CIS in this portfolio because I feel more comfortable with the coffee stock.
Aggressive Growth Portfolio

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