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Looking Good for the Long Term

Stock (Symbol)

Celgene (CELG)

Stock Price

$122

Sector
Heathcare
Data is as of
December 28, 2015
Expected to Report
Jan 27 – Feb 1
Company Description
celgene_logoCelgene Corporation (Celgene), together with its subsidiaries, is an integrated biopharmaceutical company engaged primarily in the discovery, development and commercialization of therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases through gene and protein regulation. The Company’s primary commercial stage products include REVLIMID (lenalidomide), ABRAXANE, POMALYST/IMNOVID, VIDAZA, azacitidine for injection (generic version of VIDAZA), THALOMID (sold as THALOMID or Thalidomide Celgene outside the United States), OTEZLA (apremilast) and ISTODAX (romidepsin). Celgene is involved in research in a range of scientific areas designed to deliver therapies, targeting areas, including intracellular signaling pathways, protein homeostasis and epigenetics in cancer and immune cells, immunomodulation in cancer and autoimmune diseases, and therapeutic application of cell therapies. Source: Thomson Financial
Sharek’s Take
David SharekCelgene (CELG) gives investors the best combination of growth and safety of any stock I follow. This Biotech stock has delivered stellar profit growth of 33%, 27%, 27% and 21% the last four qtrs and has an extensive pipeline that could help grow profits into the next decade. Celgene’s top drug Revlimid just settled a patent fight and will keep its exclusive status until 2022, which removes uncertainty from the stock. Last year CELG mad a big splash when it acquired Receptos, which has a drug Ozanimod in Phase 3 trials that could be better than the top MS drug on the market. Receptos could boost Celgene’s sales from $9 billion a year to $15 billion and Ozanimod might also work against ulcerative colitis, Crohn’s disease, lupus or psoriasis. Celgene is my second best stock heading into 2016. With an estimated long-term growth rate of 24% this stock is also on sale, selling for just 21x earnings. My 2016 Fair Value is $154 and 2017’s is $196. Celgene’s management sees $7.50 in profits by 2017 and $12.50 in profits by 2020 – and those figures do not include the Receptos deal. A 25 P/E on $12.50 would hypothetically net a stock price of $313.
One Year Chart
CELG_2015_Q4Celgene didn’t go up in 2015 as I thought it would. The Biotech sector got hit last year and the stocks didn’t recover even though profits kept chugging along. Everything on this chart is green, that’s a sign of quality. Sales grew 18% last qtr, profits 27% as the company beat the street by a penny.
Fair Value
CELG_2015_Q4_PHThis is a stellar looking Profit History table, showing profit growth each and every year. My 2016 Fair Value of $154 is 26% higher than the stock is now. Even more impressive is the 61% upside to 2017’s Fair Value.
Bottom Line
CELG_2015_Q4_10yrCelgene is one of the best companies around, giving investors certainty, consistency and above average growth opportunity. The stock’s compounded 31% a year the last decade and analysts predict 24% going forward. CELG’s even on sale, selling for just 21x earnings. This stock is looking good for the long term and is ranked 2nd in the Growth Portfolio and Aggressive Growth Portfolio Power Rankings, and 1st in the Conservative Stock Portfolio Power Rankings.
Power Rankings
Growth Stock Portfolio

2 of 38

Aggressive Growth Portfolio

2 of 17

Conservative Stock Portfolio

1 of 32

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